Tag Archive for: straits times index

Spencer Li

Market Outlook: Properties and Oil & Gas | Technical Analysis | Singapore Stocks

Market Outlook

Looking at the STI, it has certainly started off April strongly (refer to the last post), without even pausing to take a breath from the long run-up. Unfortunately, contrary to what I thought, there was no good pullback for entry. In fact, last Friday closed on renewed strength. There are 2 possible resistance zones ahead which could pause the current move, namely around 3305 and 3220.

Please take some time to answer this poll: “Are you feeling bullish or bearish about the Singapore stock market?” (click here to answer and view poll results)

Market Outlook 2

Looking at the daily chart of CapitaLand, we can see that there is an inverse head-and-shoulders formation, which is a bullish reversal pattern. It has broken the neckline on a bullish gap up, and has now broke through the previous resistance at 3.46. It looks poised to head higher, with possible resistance near the top of the downwards sloping channel.

Market Outlook 3

Looking at the daily chart of Keppel Corp, we can see that it has recently broke out of a triangle pattern, and has now formed a bullish flag/pennant pattern. Volume is on the decline and bars are small. I would enter with a tight stop to wait for a strong breakout, with a potential target of 14.00.

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Spencer Li

Market Outlook for April – historically the strongest month | Technical Analysis | Stock Indices

Based on my research, historically April is a strong month, ranked 2nd after December in terms of returns and the probability of closing up by the end of the month. However, after the long run-up, there does not seem to have any positive catalyst left, and may even be overbought, especially after the window dressing during late March. Hence I am expecting a brief pullback/consolidation of sorts.

Looking at the chart of the STI, we can see that it has tested and rebounded strongly from the support zone, and is close to breaking above the pivot of the W-bottom. However, due to its long run-up, it is very likely that there will be a pullback after the breakout in the event that one does occur. That will be a more optimal time for a long entry.

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Spencer Li

Key insights from 3 major indices – STI, Nikkei, Dow Jones

20091030 Dow Jones Industrial 800x600

Key insights from 3 major indices

The Dow Jones has found support at the bottom of the channel, and this could mark the end of its decline and the resumption of its slow creeping journey upwards. The Dow heading upwards could improve global sentiment and give a boost to all indices worldwide.
Key insights from 3 major indices
After the steep drop from the earthquake disaster, the Nikkei has found support at the previous low. The fall has stabilised with a couple of harami inside bars, with one of the bars being a hammer. With Warren Buffett stepping out to encourage buying, it suggests that the situation in Japan is much under control now.
Key insights from 3 major indices
The STI is coming out of the oversold zone, but the question is whether one should buy on dips or short on rallies. Looking at the recent price channel, it is clearly sloping down, and price is under the 200-day moving average, a common gauge of bullishness/bearishness, and in this case bearishness. Based on my trend-following approach, I would avoid going long against the trend. However, neither would I go short now since the reward/risk is unfavourable. I am anticipating this week to close up, but would prefer to see at least a higher low form before considering going long.
Remember, trading is not about calling every small turn, but rather having the patience to wait for the best setups, and positioning yourself such that the odds are in your favour. Good luck!
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Spencer Li

Guest Speaker for STATS Market Outlook & AGM 2010

Today, I was invited as a guest speaker to give a talk at 2009 AGM of STATS (Singapore Technical Analysts & Traders Society) on the “Strategic Outlook for 2010”. Before the talk, there was a poll, and it seemed that the general consensus is for a correction in the medium term. Here also some of the pictures taken from our slides.


Dow Jones Industrial AverageDow Jones Industrial Average
Straits Times IndexStraits Times Index
Ezra 
Ezra
 
After finishing my talk, I opened the floor to the public and numerous stock requests were shouted out. Due to time constraints, I only had time to do an on-the-spot analysis for a handful of stocks.
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