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After the sharp run-up in stocks from last year’s March lows, some people are starting to wonder if the market has got a bit too bubbly.

In this post, we will compare the different stock indices, as well as some other products, to see if there are any good opportunities.

 

The Meteoric Rise of Bitcoin

When placed on the same scale, the epic 700+% returns on Bitcoin (BTC/USD) dwarfs everything else, and has also provided some of the best returns for my portfolio last year.

Looking at its strong trend, it does look like there are a few more legs for it to go, so I will hold onto it for now.

To see the rest of the products, I will now remove Bitcoin from this comparison.

 

Overview of Various Markets

 

 

The top 3 you see are the 3 indices of the US stock market, and the one in candles is the S&P 500. The other 2 are the Dow Jones Index and the NASDAQ.

The Nasdaq had the sharpest recovery at the start, but the other 2 recently caught up, especially in the last few weeks where the NASDAQ corrected sharply.

So in terms of percentage recovery, all 3 indices are roughly at the same level.

Next if we look at the line in dark purple (2801), which is one of the China Stock ETFs which I invest in, it had a good run, and just earlier this year it was on par with the NASDAQ.

However, in recent weeks, it has corrected sharply and is now below the 3 US stock indices.

The STI Index (Singapore market) was pretty much lackluster last year, but has picked up in recent months, making it one of the top performing stock markets this year.

The last line on the chart is Gold (one of the Gold ETFs to be specific), and it seemed to have hit its recent peak in August last year.

 

Will Rising Rates Kill the Stock Market?

 

 

Historically, rising yields have led to recessions, but the lag time could be years, so it’s not like we won’t be able to see it coming as it happens.

 

 

Looking at the charts of bond prices (which are an inverse of interest rates), we can see that it peaked around the same time the stock market bottomed (March 2020), and in recent weeks has been dropping faster.

This in itself it not necessarily a bearish indication for stocks, because it is more of a sign of potential rising inflation, but as long as inflation remains low, then it may not necessarily be bad for stock prices.

Which means the best way is still to check out the charts of the stock indices.

 

Chart Analysis of S&P 500

 

In summary, the stock indices are currently trading within a sideways range after a long run-up, so it won’t be surprising if there is some medium-term correction before the trend continues.

Stay tuned for more real-time market updates in our Telegram channel:
👉🏻 https://t.me/synapsetrading

This morning, the BOJ (Bank of Japan) surprised markets by adopting negative interest rates.

boj negative rates

Source: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/bank-of-japan-surprises/2468964.html

 

BUT WAS IT REALLY A SURPRISE?

Well, to be honest, the news indeed was a surprise, but the direction that the Yen was going to take was no that surprising. This was because the price was leading the news, and we had already positioned ourselves beforehand for this move by sticking to our rules and applying the correct setups for such a market.

Hence it was no surprise when the new broke that I made S$4,866 (US$3410) profits from this move alone, from my long positions in USD/JPY, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY, which gave me a net short exposure to the Yen.

In the Synapse Network, most of us took the same positions, but there were also some independent traders who used different pairs to get short exposure to the Yen. Either way, the results will not differ much.
 

HERE ARE THE REAL TRADES & REAL RESULTS:

2016-01-29 23.12.50

usdsgd rates 290116

synapse network 290116 2

synapse network 290116

What will the next BIG move be? Stay tuned! 😀

After the bad jobs report last Friday, the chance of an interest rate increase has gone down, and this is interpreted as a bullish sign for equities, as seen in the strong BOUNCE in the last 2 days, as well as today.

There is a good chance the STI will try to test the 3,000 level again, after a false breakout from its previous hybrid of a flag pattern and triangle pattern, giving rise to an expanding triangle pattern.

straits times index 071015

synapse network 071015

 

In addition, we also have some good news on the confirmation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade deal with 11 pacific nations.

wsj 071015
12124330_10207719746253774_1187002919_o

It is best to wait a while for the dust to settle, and see if the downtrend continues. For existing positions, don’t forget to manage your SL carefully. Good luck!