Blog: Market Analysis

Yesterday, I decided to close out my short positions on the EUR/USD, which on hindsight was a big mistake. I should have stuck with my original TP, and it would have rewarded me with an additional $4000.

Many people have asked me how I derived my TP of 1.3252, and I have decided to reveal one of my techniques for doing precise price projections. If you see the pink grid in the chart, I had that plotted even before the breakout, and if you observe the black sell arrow at the top, that is where price reached, almost to the precise pip. That’s how accurate it can be.

For today, the path of last resistance is still upwards, and I will be watching to either enter on higher timeframe pullbacks or in the opposite direction should I spot any reversal pivotal points.

Spencer is an avid globetrotter who achieved financial freedom in his 20s, while trading & teaching across 70+ countries. As a former professional trader in private equity and proprietary funds, he has over 15 years of market experience, and has been featured on more than 20 occasions in the media.

Japan Post-Elections – Scalping Trades in Quiet Markets

This morning, the Japan elections concluded, and there was strong movement in the Yen-related pairs. My over-the-weekend Gold trade which I recorded in my previous post trended down and hit my TP.

For the day, there was not much movement, so I traded smaller sizes, going long on the EUR/USD with only 15 standard lots. Let’s see how it turns out tomorrow.

The Week Before Christmas – Parties & Rallies

Looking back at last week, we saw a strong run-up in the EUR/USD. Initially, I was bearish, but I realised the path of least resistance was upwards, so I cut-and-reversed to go long, applying the reverse psychology setup. Next week, we will see if it can clear the resistance zone.

Gold has broke the major trendline, and based on behavioral analysis, the path of least resistance is currently to the downside. I have been short since Thursday as mentioned in the forum, and I have taken 1/2 profits and trailed the rest. Let’s see if it can go lower.

For those trading SGX stocks, here are some trade ideas for you to apply the 7 setups. Remember to apply the visual scans before taking action, and focus on getting an optimal entry point. Watch for the tipping point.

2 Comments/by Spencer Li

Commodities Trading | Non-farm Payroll – Another Gold Strike to End the Week!

Today there was quite a lot of news, but the main event was the NFP (non-farm payroll) which caused a major selloff, flipping the market risk-off. The EUR/USD had been heading up the past few days, and I spotted a good opportunity to short it.

Gold also exhibited the “tipping point” price action, a similar setup I used for my past 5 out of 5 winning Gold trades. I shorted it, expecting the news release to confirm my price action reading.

As seen from the chart, Gold first spiked up to squeeze out weak players and to trap some bulls, then plunged over $10. To give you some perspective, a $1 move is equal to 100 USD per lot (meaning $10 is 1000 USD per lot). Naturally, this hit my TP (profit target) which I had placed near that level. Strangely, Gold recovered fully and more in the very next bar, but thankfully I had already taken my profits.

I decided to call it a day after this, and had some beer and chips in the office before heading out for Bak Kut Teh supper with some other forex traders. Overall, this was a good week, with a 72% hitrate and net profit of over 16k. I look forward to maintaining my consistency and trading with even greater size.

I will be sharing my market outlook on stocks and forex on Sunday.

Singapore Stocks | Olam – The Scary 3 Black Crows

Starting to look toppish from a longer-term perspective.

This is what I call a strong trend. You do not have to be a genius to make money from this trade. Hence, for beginners, we encourage to focus on the trend-surfing play, and put aside the other 6 setups until they have mastered this.

Same chart as the one i posted a few days ago calling for a sell, except that this is the updated version. 3 black crows in that context is very bearish. I will continue to post new stock picks in advance in the Synapse forum. Stay tuned!