Blog: Market Analysis

Since the post-2007 crash recovery starting in 2009, how have the markets fared?

Stocks, represented by the S&P 500, have steadily climbed, gaining an impressive 130% over the 6+ years.

Commodities, represented by oil, silver and gold, did not fare so well.

Oil peaked in the first half of 2011, consolidated for about 3 years, then made new lows in 2014.

Silver and Gold peaked in late 2011, then steadily declined all the way till today, giving up almost all its gains since 2009.

As the Fed gets ready to raise the interest rates, this is likely to give a boost to the US dollar, which will further suppress commodity prices. For oil, this is especially bad, since there is already an oversupply forecasted for 2016.

A higher interest rate will also bring down bond prices, ending the 30-year bull trend, and in months to come, act as a drag on stock prices. This means that the stock market is a ticking time bomb.

If all these happens, we will have a scenario with:

Bullish US dollar
Bearish oil, gold, silver, commodities
Bearish bond prices
Bearish stock prices
Bearish economy?

That would be a pretty gloomy deflation scenario. 🙁

What is my current portfolio strategy?

Stay tuned for my monthly portfolio update (November 2015) and current portfolio strategy at the end of this month!
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https://synapsetrading.com/resources/the-7-best-kept-secrets-of-professional-traders/

Spencer is an avid globetrotter who achieved financial freedom in his 20s, while trading & teaching across 70+ countries. As a former professional trader in private equity and proprietary funds, he has over 15 years of market experience, and has been featured on more than 20 occasions in the media.

Bearish Trade Setup: Gold on H4 Timeframe (Forex)

After our last few trades, including a short position on the STI index, and a short position on the NZD/USD (which we closed and switched to long on a new setup – updated real-time), and tomorrow we are watching for a few new trades to enter.

One of our latest trading opportunity is a bearish trade setup on the H4 timeframe of Gold, which we have now converted to a risk-free trade by shifting our stoploss to breakeven. This means that even if the position goes against us, the maximum amount we can lose is our open profit, and not any of our precious trading capital.

This coming Thursday, I will be doing a live demonstration on how I pick these trades, and reveal the latest trading opportunities. I will also be talking about the majors that affect the big moves in the market, and how you can build a portfolio that can do well in all market conditions, so that you do not have to worry about the stock market crashing.

See you there!

Bearish Trade Setup: NZD/USD on H4 Timeframe (Forex)

We just took a new LIVE trade on NZD/USD on the H4 timeframe, and the trade parameters (EP, SL, TP) are indicated on the chart.

The NZD is one of the most bearish currencies at present due to the easing cycle of the RBNZ.

The USD remains the strongest currency in the longer term. Fed Fund Futures currently price a rate hike in March, with October at less than 10% and December around 30%.

Here are some of our other open positions:

Next week, I will going through all these positions and new trading opportunities in my new FREE seminar, as well as the strategies used for these trades.
Check availability: https://synapsetrading.com/free-workshop-7-best-kept-secrets-professional-traders-live/

See you there! 😀

Will there be easing for the SGD, and is it a good chance to go long on USD/SGD?

This week, the central bank is predicted to ease monetary policy for Singapore, considering we have officially slipped into recession for the first time since the global financial crisis in 2008-09. Our economy was expected to have shrunk 0.1 per cent in the third quarter from the previous three months on an annualised and seasonally adjusted basis after a 4 per cent contraction, according to a Reuters poll.

For those unfamiliar with our monetary policy, the central bank manages monetary policy by letting the Singdollar rise or fall against the currencies of its main trading partners within an undisclosed trading band based on its S$NEER.

Singaporean dollar bank notes are arranged for a photograph in Singapore, on Tuesday, Aug. 9, 2011. Singapore reduced the top end of its growth forecast for 2011 as a faltering U.S. economy and the European debt crisis heightened the risks to global expansion. Photographer: Munshi Ahmed/Bloomberg

Photographer: Munshi Ahmed/Bloomberg

Of the 25 analysts surveyed by Reuters, 15 expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to loosen policy. And among those who predict an easing, seven expect the slope to be reduced to zero and four see a lower mid-point. Three others expect a slope reduction and re-centering, while one analyst expects a zero slope and band widening.

Looking at the chart of the USD/SGD, we can observe that the medium-term trend is still bullish, with the recent weakness in the USD causing a correction in the past week. This gives rise to a possible double-bottom bull flag pattern, resting on a previous level of support.

I think it would be a good opportunity to initiate a long position on the USD/SGD, as the strength in the USD is expected to persist. Good luck! 😀

How Sustainable is the Current Rally? What Caused it?

After the bad jobs report last Friday, the chance of an interest rate increase has gone down, and this is interpreted as a bullish sign for equities, as seen in the strong BOUNCE in the last 2 days, as well as today.

There is a good chance the STI will try to test the 3,000 level again, after a false breakout from its previous hybrid of a flag pattern and triangle pattern, giving rise to an expanding triangle pattern.

In addition, we also have some good news on the confirmation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade deal with 11 pacific nations.

It is best to wait a while for the dust to settle, and see if the downtrend continues. For existing positions, don’t forget to manage your SL carefully. Good luck!