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For the past 2 months, the Covid-19 virus (Wuhan virus, Coronavirus) which originated in China was highly contagious, but it managed to remain mostly in China, hence the global community as a whole did not seem that worred about it, as seem by how the Us markets continued to run up.

However, it now seems that the virus is speaking to other countries quickly, with outbreaks in South Korea, Italy, and the Middle East (Iran), sparking fears that this might go out of hand and create a global pandemic.

Spread of the Covid-19 Virus

As we can see from the map, the virus has spread to most of the developed economies, thankfully sparing Africa and South America.

It would be disastrous if the virus did get there, as they are battling many other problems and other diseases (eg. Ebola).

The cases are still growing daily at an alarming rate, but at least it is no longer exponential.

The risk, however, is that clusters of outbreaks in various parts of the world might cause another exponential spike in cases.

 

Bearishness in Aussie Dollar (AUD)

Safe haven assets like Gold, Bitcoin and USD have been strong, while currencies like NZD, EUR and AUD have weakened the most.

 

Here are some of the recent analysis and trades of AUD/USD and AUD/CAD:

 

Gold as a Hedge Against Stock Declines

Gold is a good hedge against a crash in the stock market, because it is viewed as a safe haven asset, especially when the crash is happening.

Since the stock market is at all time highs, we have advised our students to add Gold to their investment portfolio.

Gold has since rallied strongly, and will likely continue to outperform.

 

If you would like to avoid missing out on any of such awesome trades (which we deliver on a daily basis), then you should definitely check out our training program & trading signals bundle:
https://synapsetrading.com/the-synapse-program/

See you on the inside!

Risks of Wuhan Coronavirus

As you can see from the world map below, the virus originated in Wuhan, China, and has slowly spread to other parts of the world.

To date, the number of infected cases has reached almost 10,000, surpassing the 8,000+ of SARS.

The WHO has also declared it a global emergency, which China quarantining cities of millions, and many countries restricting travel to and from China.

 

 

In my opinion, the scariest thing is how contagious this new virus is.

If you look at the chart below, you can the exponential increase in the outbreak, compared to the much slower spread of SARS.

In addition, there is a long incubation period of 2 to 14 days, where no symptoms might manifest, but victims remain contagious during that time.

That means that a handful of people have the potential to spread it to many, many others unknowingly.

 

 

Stock Market Opportunities

Looking at the data table below, the stock market tends to recover pretty quickly after any epidemics, and most of the time it gives a positive return within 3 months.

This means that the market tends to react overly negatively due to panic and fear, causing it to price in a much worse scenario than what usually happens in reality.

Hopefully, the virus does not escalate out of hand this time and become a black swan event.

 

 

Recent Trading Opportunities

Looking at our recent trade calls on our free Telegram channel, the AUD and NZD has shown much weakness, as well as commodities like Crude Oil (about 17% profit from shorting), whereas Bitcoin has performed well, gunning for the $10,000 level.

The thing about trading is that although you might spend time reading news or studying your charts or discussing trades ideas daily, the truth is you only need a handful of good trades every month to be very profitable. Quality, not quantity!

Stay tuned in our Telegram channel for the best trading opportunities!