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Spencer Li

Here are 5 Reasons Why You May Never Get to Retire Despite working Harder

rat race

As the cost of living continues to increase year after year, you probably would have spent some time pondering about your financial security. You probably would have heard stories of or personally experienced a company downsizing, a pay cut, the loss of your job, mounting expenses, or just a sudden realization that the world isn’t such a stable place.

No matter when you discover this truth, it is critical that you come to terms with it. Only by knowing the truth can you deal with the reality of financial troubles ahead. Last year was marked by uncertainty, and it probably is just the tip of the iceberg of what can happen going forward.

1For most people, wages will never be enough to sustain their lifestyle at retirement.
Source: media.cagle.com

Talk to any taxi driver and he will probably complain to you about any of the following:

  • Rising healthcare costs
  • Rising petrol costs
  • Rising food costs
  • Rising housing costs
  • Instability in the economy

These money issues are real. However, before we go into the solutions, we have to understand where these problems come from.

 

1. Low Interest Rate Environment

A low interest rate environment means that you need to go beyond your bank deposits to preserve your wealth.

However, despite having more mobile phones than people in Singapore, we are painfully ignorant in financial matters. We are educated, but not wise; we are connected with each other, but disconnected with reality.

Truth be told, most people have no idea how to even match up to the bank interest rate, much less beat the bank interest rate. The average level of financial literacy in Singapore is still shockingly low. To be a decent investor, it would be necessary to at least understand basic financial instruments, financial asset classes, methods of speculation/investment, and simple risk management.

Financial literacy is the first step to fighting inflation. You don’t necessarily need to know exotic strategies like statistical arbitrage, premium collection on SPY options, futures pairs trading, spread betting, or betting on changes in the yield curve. But a basic understanding of market cycles and trading principles will make a large difference in one’s investment results.

2. CPF Alone May Not Be Sufficient

In years of economic boom, Singapore tends to experience inflation of 4-5%. The CPF ordinary account grows at 2.5%, which means your money’s losing value when the economy grows. Counting on CPF alone may help you get by, but would it really sustain the lifestyle you desire? Even if the inflation rate falls to 1-2% a year, very few Singaporeans can say they are able to retire comfortably.

It is more prudent to have something besides CPF to fall back on.

Some solutions include:

  • being willing to downgrade your apartment
  • holding structured deposits (can yield 4% or more)
  • holding high-dividend stocks

However, these strategies will probably only help in wealth preservation, not wealth creation.

For wealth creation, you need far more investment sophistication and dedication.

Doing a refresher for the setups before we embark on live trading! ??? #tradingarcade #realtraders

A post shared by Spencer Li ?? Synapse Trading (@iamrecneps) on

 

3. Zero Inflation Could Be the Norm

A world of zero inflation is good for the average consumer (he thinks he won’t be paying more for his food/car/house/petrol), but it’s bad for wages.

Truth be told, when inflation suffers, it is normally a terrible situation for the economy to be in. Remember the productivity drive a few years ago? The government aimed for 2% productivity growth every year, because inflation was terribly low and the country had to do something about it.

sgInflation has fallen and fallen, and has even turned negative in 2015 and part of 2016.
Source: tradingeconomics.com

Stagnating or falling wages can become the norm. With wages in peril, it is even more essential to generate additional streams of income, or risk falling into financial destitution.

Examples of shrinking professions include:

  • F&B services
  • Marketing professionals (yes! because the supply has caught up with demand in recent times)
  • Insurance Agents
  • Property Agents
  • Logistics professionals (yes! because the supply has caught up with demand due to the euphoric onslaught of e-commerce firms)

If you have children, the best thing you can do is to advise them regarding these trends. Don’t be so concerned about their math scores, science scores, or whatever score; look to give them training in these skills, and to explore their interests in these areas.

 

4. Persistently High Property Prices

This is good news for existing property owners, but bad news for new property buyers. Singapore will continue attracting rich foreign buyers because that’s our value proposition as a nation. This problem keeps worsening as long as our property is affordable to wealthy investors from overseas. The government is likely to step in if property prices start falling.

The issue with high property prices is that most people end up taking 20 to 30-year loans and live with debt for most of their adult life. This keeps the economy stagnant and unable to experience growth like we’ve seen in the 1980s and 1990. A debt-ridden adult is much less likely to splurge. With an entire generation of people living with huge mortgage loans, we won’t see fantastic growth in a very long time.

Opening speaker for SMART Expo SG 2017! Thanks to everyone who came down to support! ? #suntec #property #guestspeaker

A post shared by Spencer Li ?? Synapse Trading (@iamrecneps) on

 

5. Rising Medical Costs and Falling Government Support

Take note: it’s not the government’s fault; blame it on falling birth rates. With a smaller workforce, tax revenues will fall and Singapore will be less able to provide for its elderly.

Singapore will age, and more and more sick people will depend on a smaller proportion of working adults in this country. It’s inevitable that the government cannot support the large number of elderly who will reside in our hospitals and hospices. It’s the same ‘graying’ problem that Japan is facing.

Falling government support, along with higher demand for doctors and strained infrastructure will cause medical bills to rise. Sure, it’ll be great for healthcare stocks, but healthcare spending on the elderly is not expansionary. Basic health economics would differentiate between healthcare spending that improves economic well-being (vaccinations on children, basic sanitation etc.), and healthcare spending that does not improve economic well-being. We’ll be seeing a lot of spending that does little to boost the economy.

 

So, “What Should I Do?”

The fact that you’re reading this shows that you are concerned for your financial future. Keep learning, reading, and exploring ways to combat this reality. After all, people perish for the lack of knowledge, not the lack of determination. Acquiring the right investment skills, financial management practices, and general knowledge will help protect you and your family from financial destitution.

My greatest hope is that you, the reader, would be motivated to start educating yourself financially, and to get your hands dirty in the investment world.

Cheers, and see you all soon! 😀

 

RESEARCH SOURCES & REFERENCES

www.blog.linkedin.com/2016/10/20/top-skills-2016-week-of-learning-linkedin
www.cnbc.com/2016/10/20/the-top-10-skills-that-will-get-you-hired.html

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Spencer Li

The 10 Financial Milestones that Everyone Needs to Aim For

beginners guide to trading and technical analysis

The 10 Financial Milestones Every Singaporean Should Aim For

Last updated: 3 July 2026 · By Spencer Li, CFTe

The 10 financial milestones every Singaporean should aim for are: a clean credit history, the skill of budgeting, becoming a “time-investor” who builds skills before chasing returns, full financial independence from your parents, adequate insurance coverage, an active plan to stay physically fit, owning the roof over your head, tracking your active and passive income, holding six months of expenses in cash, and meeting real investors regularly. Notice that only a few of these are about making money. The rest are about preserving it and protecting it, because amassing wealth and keeping wealth are two different skills. Most people obsess over the first and skip the second.

Here is the honest part. You do not need all ten before you start. But the more of them you have in place, the stronger your financial house stands when a storm comes. So treat the list below as an audit. Read each one, and quietly tick off how many you have already done.

What is a “financial milestone”, and why ten?

A financial milestone is a checkpoint that tells you your money is actually getting healthier, not just busier. The road to financial freedom is marked by progress, and these are the markers along it.

Some milestones are about building wealth. Others, the ones most people forget, are about preserving it. A missed preservation milestone (no insurance, no cash buffer) can wipe out years of building in a single bad event. That is why the list mixes both, and why getting your house in order comes before marching anywhere.

Before any of this, do one thing: a clean, honest audit of where you stand today. You cannot fix a number you have not looked at.

The 10 milestones at a glance

#MilestoneWhat it really meansBuild or preserve?
1Clean credit historyPay every bill on time, no penalties, no finesPreserve
2The skill of budgetingA budget you actually keep, not one you redraw monthlyBuild
3Be a time-investorInvest your time into skills before you invest your moneyBuild
4Financial independenceYour livelihood no longer depends on who hands you moneyBuild
5Adequate insuranceProtection for you and the people who depend on youPreserve
6A plan to stay fitHealth, so you can actually enjoy the wealth you buildPreserve
7Own your homeThe roof over your head, so an emergency cannot put you on the streetPreserve
8Track active and passive incomeA quarterly reality check on where your money comes fromBuild
9Six months of expenses in cashA war chest, so you are never worried about bread on the tablePreserve
10Meet investors regularlySurround yourself with real investors, not a comfort zoneBuild

Now here is how each one works, and where people get it wrong.

1. Have a clean credit history

Paying personal bills on time is a chore for many. The financially healthy person masters it anyway.

It is simple, really. Do not buy what is beyond you right now. I have heard of startup founders who slept in basements to save on rent, bunking with four other like-minded nerds who did not mind the early shame for the later glory. Most of us are far more financially secure than that. Even with some debt, most middle-class families get by and put a little aside each month.

So the rule is plain. Do not spend what you do not have. Business loans do not count here, because they are a different animal from personal debt.

Have you done a thorough audit of your personal debts? A good credit rating is one big green tick on your financial health. Pay your bills on time, avoid penalty fees and fines, and your record at the Credit Bureau Singapore (the bureau that holds your local credit report) stays clean.

2. Learn the skill of budgeting

Before wealth is amassed, you have to learn to manage small amounts of money. If you can be trusted with little, you can be trusted with much.

Budgeting is a simple skill. The catch is that people do not keep to their budgets. They adjust them the way they adjust their exercise schedule, their weight-loss plan, their study plan, and everything else.

A budget you do not keep makes budgeting useless. The resolve to stick to it is part of the skill. If you cannot abide by your own budget, there is only one person to blame.

Parents have a role here too. Teach budgeting to children when they are young, and the attitude stays. Even when the amounts get bigger later, the discipline keeps the person financially healthy over the long run.

3. Be a professional time-investor

Here is the wrong question to ask: “I have $10,000, what should I invest in?” Anyone leading with that is starting at the wrong end. The right question is: “What skills should I acquire to become a proficient investor?”

Time is all you need to acquire skills. Many people complain about the lack of real financial education in schools, then stay stuck at the complaining stage. To be a professional investor of money, you first have to be a professional investor of your own time.

If you spend most of your time watching YouTube and it makes you happy, great. But if that is not the life you want, do something about it. Even after trading for many years, I still make it a point to read good books and stimulate my thinking. Self-help, trading books, even fiction. You would be surprised how much a good, beefy fiction book teaches you.

This is also where the human edge lives. A screener will tell you what is moving in a second, and that part is now basically free. What it will not do is build the judgment to know which opportunity is worth your time and which one to walk past. The skill you invest your time into is the part no tool can buy for you. It is the first of the Five Edges.

4. Be financially independent

If you are still living off your parents, that is okay. There is nothing to be ashamed of, because all of us start there. But you need a plan to get to the point where your livelihood no longer depends on who gives you money.

Many young people are quietly leaning on the safety net that their parents will rescue them if they mess up. That may even be true, since no parent wants their child to face a financial catastrophe. Still, every one of us needs to reach the place where we take responsibility for our own finances and keep honest track of where we stand.

5. Get adequate insurance coverage

As a responsible adult, your job is not only to protect yourself financially, but also the people you love. You cannot compromise on insurance, because your life does not revolve around you alone.

Having solid financial backing when something tragic happens is what financial responsibility looks like in practice. It shows you have a clear plan for emergencies.

Personally, I do not think investment-linked policies are really investments. As I said in milestone #3, invest your time, not your money into a policy hoping it grows. Take up the necessary protection, get the peace of mind, and that is all you need. You would be surprised how uninformed most people are about insurance, and getting this right is one milestone that will set you apart.

6. Have an active plan to keep yourself fit

Many people never even consider physical fitness a financial milestone. But what use is all the wealth in the world if you are too unwell to enjoy it?

Keeping fit is simple, yet hard to do. Just like budgeting, most people know what to do and do not do it. Get yourself in shape if you want your financial health in shape. The two are more connected than they look.

7. Own the roof over your head

Yes, there are stories of young people who made it big and bought a mansion with the $150 million they got from selling a company. Most of us do not have that luxury.

The majority work their way to owning a first home before getting anywhere major in life. When it comes to financial freedom, owning the roof over your head is the least you can do, because when an emergency strikes, you will not be forced onto the street.

8. Monitor your active and passive income

Financial freedom involves both active income (what you earn from working) and passive income (what your assets earn for you). Reviewing them every three months or so keeps you up to date on your progress. It is also a reality check, so you do not quietly drift into skiving.

A simple Excel sheet does the job. It is as easy as tracking your expenses, and most basic apps on the App Store or Play Store work fine. The hard part is not the tool. It is drilling in the discipline to keep the routine.

9. Keep six months of expenses in cash

This is another defensive safety net. If you do not even have a six-month war chest, do not yet think about financial freedom. Reaching the goals you set takes real effort and real risk, and the last thing you want to be worrying about mid-journey is whether there is bread on the table or milk in the fridge.

10. Meet investors regularly

If you are a Pokemon card fan, you probably spend most of your time around fellow Pokemon fans. That is fine if you want to be Ash Ketchum. But if you want to be an investor, hang around real investors.

Go to events. Meet like-minded people. Network hard, and find out what the scene is actually like. Know what is trending, what is outdated, what people are interested in. Spending time with these people keeps you in sync with the world of investing and expands your thinking.

For example, when I first heard of options, it blew my mind. You can actually make money when prices do not move. You do not have to bet on a rise or a fall, you simply collect premium. I will not go deep here, but learning that opened my mind when I was much younger and kept me hungry to explore.

Many people fall into a comfort zone once they hit their 30s and 40s. That is normal, because the trials of life take a toll. But if you really want a fulfilling life, you have to step out and behave like someone who is going to live one.

Two quotes I keep coming back to. If you are 25, behave like you are 35: be mature, patient, and kind in your dealings with people. And if you are 55, behave like you are 35: stay excited, passionate, willing to change, and open to young people for who they are.

I used to get criticised for spending too much time on my phone. Guess what? I now spend most of my time on the phone trading and analysing charts, not confined to a desk in an office. The things society did not quite accept can become mainstream very quickly.

How many of these do you actually have?

Be honest with yourself on each line. You can forgo a few early on. But to be genuinely stable, you have to build the foundation strong. When the storm comes, would your financial house stand?

If you are going to make any headway toward financial freedom, it had better start today. Make a plan. Go to your drawing board. Stop relitigating the past, and live a life of possibilities. Do not know where to start? Ask, learn, and seek help.

FAQ

What are the financial milestones to hit in Singapore?
The ten worth aiming for are: a clean credit history, the skill of budgeting, becoming a time-investor, financial independence, adequate insurance, a plan to stay fit, owning your home, tracking active and passive income, holding six months of expenses in cash, and meeting real investors regularly. Roughly half build wealth and half preserve it.

How much should I keep in an emergency fund?
A common rule of thumb is six months of your living expenses, held in cash. The point is to never be forced to worry about basics while you take the risks that financial freedom requires.

Should I learn to invest before I have a lot of money?
Yes. The better first question is not “what should I invest in” but “what skills should I acquire to become a good investor”. Time spent building judgment compounds before any capital does.

Are investment-linked insurance policies a good investment?
Personally I do not treat them as investments. The cleaner approach is to take up the protection you genuinely need for peace of mind, and to build your investing skill separately. This is education, not advice, so weigh it against your own situation.

Why is physical fitness on a financial checklist?
Because wealth you are too unwell to enjoy is not much of a goal. Health is the asset that lets you actually use everything else you build.

So, how many of the ten did you tick off? Tell me in the comments, and flag the one you are tackling next.

If you want to start with milestone #3, building the skill before chasing the return, that is exactly what we teach. Read the pillar: The Skills That Make a Profitable Trader.

Want a simple system to start with? Grab the free 15-Minute Swing Trading Starter Kit. It’s the exact routine I use to scan once a day and trade any market in 15 minutes, the practical side of becoming a time-investor.

About the author. Spencer Li is the founder of Synapse Trading and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) with 15 years of trading across stocks, forex, crypto, commodities, and bonds. His trade log is public, 404 trades, losses left in. He teaches low-risk swing trading in 15 minutes a day, one system for any market.

Education, not financial advice. Synapse Trading is not licensed by MAS to advise on investment products. Trading carries risk of loss; past performance is not indicative of future results.

Related

The Skills That Make a Profitable Trader (pillar) · How to build an emergency fund and start investing in Singapore · Active vs passive income explained

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Spencer Li

The January Barometer: An Accurate Predictor of Stocks for 2017?

1 5

There are many speculations about leading indicators in the market, and one of the most popular ones is the January Barometer. In this post, we will explore this phenomenon, and see if it holds up to the test, and whether it will provide any useful insights going forward.

WHAT IS THE JANUARY BAROMETER?

“As January goes, so will the market go for the year.” – Wall Street Folklore

The January barometer is a tool used to determine if the year will be bullish on the equity space. If January sees a winning month, the year would be a winning year.

January can be said to be an indicator to whether the year would be bullish or not.

This idea first emerged in the 1972 edition of Yale Hirsch’s Stock Trader’s Almanac. Here’s what was published:

“We doubt that any technique or indicator ever devised has been so remarkably accurate as the January Barometer. The barometer, which indicates that as January goes, so will the market go for the total year, has proven correct in 20 of the last 24 years…. Very few stock market indicators show such an 83.3 percent accuracy for even short spans of time.”

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/BPuVVnxj8Yt/?taken-by=iamrecneps

 

PREVIOUSLY… INVESTIGATING THE SANTA CLAUS RALLY

A couple of months back, I collected statistics for a simple ‘buy in January, sell in February’ portfolio. How it works is simple: I would purchase the stock index on 1 January, and sell it on 1 February and see the results.

Buy in January, Sell in February Statistics

2011: 4.34%

2012: 1.28%

2013: 4.55%

2014: 5.62%

2015: -0.08% — Total returns for 5 years = +15.71%!!!

Over the last 5 years, it has indeed been a great run for the ‘buy in January, sell in February’ portfolio.

This got me excited, but I decided to look further back in history…

Breaking up the time periods into 5-year chucks, here are the statistics:

5-year “Buy in January, Sell in February” Statistics

2011-2015: +15.71%

2006-2010: -8.7%

2001-2005: +0.88%

1996-2000: -6.38%

The santa claus rally didn’t really exist as claimed by most sensationalists.

This time, we want to look at whether January tells us if the year would be a winning year.

 

JANUARY BULL RUN = WHOLE YEAR BULL RUN?

Quantpedia has a good summary of this, and the strategy is simple: Invest in equity market in each January. Stay invested in equity markets (via ETF, fund or futures) only if January return is positive otherwise switch investments to T-Bills.

To put it more simply, there are two scenarios:

Scenario 1: January positive –> Stay invested in equities

Scenario 2: January negative –> Exit equities

The results are shocking. Quoting from a research paper titled: “What’s the Best Way to Trade Using the January Barometer?” (M. J. Cooper, J. J. McConnell, A. V. Ovtchinnikov, 2009)

“We investigated the power of the January market return to predict returns for the next 11 months using 147 years of U.S. stock market returns.

Using 147 years of U.S market data, this was the result:

We found that, on average, the 11-month holding period return following positive Januarys was significantly higher, by a wide margin, (-7.76%) than the 11-month holding period return following negative Januarys.”

This meant that on average, a year with a positive January outperformed a year with negative January by 7.76%. This is a very significant difference.

 

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/BOquPBmjdbj/?taken-by=iamrecneps

 

5 TRADING STRATEGIES THAT WERE RESEARCHED

In the research paper that I mentioned above (you can read the whole paper by downloading it in the link at the bottom of this article), here are 2 strategies that can be taken knowing that January is a good predictor of the market for the rest of the 11 months:

(1) LONG/T-BILL STRATEGY

Long in Jan, continue being long if Jan is positive, but exit and go long on bonds if Jan is negative.

(2) LONG/SHORT STRATEGY

Long in Jan, continue being long if January is positive, but go short if Jan is negative.

The results for 1857 – 2008 are highlighted below:

1-4Strategy 1 ( completely outperformed strategy 2.
Source: Page 21 of “What’s the Best Way to Trade Using the January Barometer?” (M. J. Cooper, J. J. McConnell, A. V. Ovtchinnikov, 2009)

In the research paper, 5 strategies were outlined, but I only cover the 2 that are relevant to our discussion.

It seems that this would be a very profitable strategy:

Firstly, buy stocks in January.

If January is positive, remain long on stocks from February to December.

If January is negative, exit stocks and go long on bonds from February to December.

In addition, the research paper also published returns for the years 1940 – 2008:

2
Strategy 1 completely outperformed strategy 2, even in the recent 70 years.
Source: Page 23 of “What’s the Best Way to Trade Using the January Barometer?” (M. J. Cooper, J. J. McConnell, A. V. Ovtchinnikov, 2009)

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/BOZFaacjNwq/?taken-by=iamrecneps

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

sti-1030x478The STI is up 5.5% for the month of January 2017. Going by the strategy outlined above, if you are a buy-and-hold investor, it would be wise to hold the STI until the end of 2017.

 

dow-1030x473On the contrary, for the Dow, we’ve only seen a +0.4% increase in Jan 2017. At the time of writing this (2:00am Singapore Time, 1 Feb), it still makes sense to hold the U.S stock index until the end of 2017 (if you’re a buy-and-hold investor). That being said, it’s wise to employ price action strategies and focus on a precision entry/exit if you are already long.

While the January barometer is good information to know, it’s largely a super long-term strategy (10-20 years) and investors will position themselves well if they have strong price action fundamentals in a generally bullish market.

Going forward, I expect the stock market in both Singapore and U.S to be bullish. This is a probabilistic approach; I would still be making trades based on solid price action strategies, and make portfolio adjustments where necessary.

All the best for 2017, and happy trading! I hope that this article has shed some light for those who hate reading research papers 🙂

 

RESEARCH SOURCES & REFERENCES

investopedia.com/terms/j/januarybarometer.asp
cnbc.com/2014/01/30/uld-totally-ignore-the-january-barometer.html
quantpedia.com/screener/Details/113
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1436516
fullertreacymoney.com/content/2010-03-02/Januaryeffrct.pdf
Cover Image: wallpapercave.com

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Spencer Li

How Much Must You Save to Have $1M at Retirement? (The Answer is Surprisingly Low!)

one million at retirement

 

These days, $1M seems to be the golden figure that everyone aims to attain before retiring. I know there is this great debate about whether $1M is enough, but hey, $1M can get you by for many, many months.

Here’s a table summarizing exactly how much you need to save (or rather, invest) every month, in order to retire with $1M. Using some formulas from my finance 101 class in university,

tableThere you go. I tabulated the figures for easy reference.

It’s one thing to know how much to save monthly, but the real challenge is to get down to doing it.

Here’s 3 tips I have to help you guys attain your own financial goals. They are simple, but you might be surprised how hard they are to actually follow-through with!

 

TIP 1: SAVE MONEY, REALLY.

Yes, save money. This is so easy to say, but difficult to do.

I remember that in my younger days, after receiving my first paycheck, I went out and quickly spent half of my salary on a ‘gift’ to myself, as a reward for seeing the first stack of cash come into my bank account. I quickly learnt that I did not actually need that gift, and that saving money was very, very difficult, especially since you know that your income is certain!

If there was one piece of advice on how to actually save money, it is this: PAY YOURSELF FIRST! It is surprisingly difficult to get yourself to do this, but you must learn to pay yourself first. Paying yourself first doesn’t mean buying something for yourself; it means moving money out from your paycheck into a savings account or investment account on a regular basis.

Perhaps its tough for the first few months, but new habits take time to form and when you actually get down to it, you see that it is a very useful habit to have. In fact, if you have children, it would be good to start teaching them this from a young age. “Pay yourself first, and then spend what you have left” is a good way to instill financial discipline in the younger generation.

Before you ask “How much do I need to save?”, why don’t we just get down to the first step, which is to actually start saving money?

Once you get in the habit of saving, it because second-nature. After doing so for some time, we can move on to the next tip:

TIP 2: BUILD A TRULY DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO

Generally speaking, there are two kinds of investing strategies:

FAST money: trading income, bringing in quick gains.

Trading is the way to quickly build up a portfolio and invest in dividend-yielding counters or REITs. Once you’ve stuck to a simple trading strategy, repeating it over time is bound to yield significant profits, much faster than you would in a fixed deposit or by holding the stock index for 5-10 years.

SLOW money: passive income, bringing in smaller but consistent gains.

For those with lots of money, they can allocate much of their portfolio to more stable assets, like dividend stocks, the stock index (it brings a dividend as well!), or other longer-term bonds.

Most people want to use fast money  all through their life, but it is unrealistic. As we age, we have less and less energy and time to continually engage the markets, so the goal is always to have a large war chest that brings in true passive income.

You might be surprised how few people understand the true meaning of a portfolio. Sometimes, the word ‘portfolio’ brings in the idea that you can only buy 5-10 stocks and hold them over 20-30 years. I beg to differ; in a portfolio, one must be truly diversified across…

  • All asset classes (forex, bonds, stocks, REITs, ETFs, commodities)
  • Time horizons (fixed deposits / buy-and-hold dividend stocks VS trading income)

Learning to do so requires some dedication and bumping your head in the wrong places at first. That’s why I always recommend that beginners take up forex trading; they’ll be exposed to market volatility, intra-day and longer-term trading, and also different asset classes by trading oil, gold, wheat, the stock indices, and bonds. Furthermore, you need as little as $500 to start with, and the cost of failure is very low.

 

TIP 3: STAY CONSISTENT

It is remarkably difficult to do something simple over and over again.

Want to lose weight? Exercise and eat healthy. But how many people actually keep to this?

Want to become better at socialising? Spend more time with people rather than with your phone or computer. But how many people actually keep to this?

Want to learn to trade? Stick to 1-2 trade setups, and repeat these trades week after week. But how many people actually keep to this?

It is very, very difficult to do what is simple and boring. In fact, it is the boredom that kills most traders!

One thing that experienced traders fail to do that knocks them out of the game is this: they fail to keep reading, reflecting, and honing their craft.

Continuous learning has to be part of your investing plan. After all, most people only want to invest money, but don’t want to invest the time to learn how to be profitable.

How much returns is good returns?

Well, that depends on your goals. There is a trading strategy for every level of returns. A conservative 10-20% returns as a trader is possible and you generally take a lot less risk than someone who wants 100-200% returns a year.

Depending on when you want to retire, you need to find out how much % returns you need a year, and look for a strategy that gets you there.

 

IT’S BORING, BUT YOU NEED TO TRACK YOUR PROGRESS!

how-muchWith a Google search, I found a useful table to track your progress, credits to businessinsider.sg! Source: BusinessInsider.sg

Suppose you want to save $1M, it’s extremely important to track if you are on target, and see if you need to allocate more funds to fast money or slow money.

If you are proficient with MS Excel, you should be able to come up with a table for your income, expenses, savings, investment returns, and projected net worth by whatever year that you are aiming to retire by.

I hope this article brings you to your feet and gets you started on your quest for financial freedom. Maybe for you, the first step is to actually start saving money! Starting where you are is all you need to do. With every step you take, you’ll be one step closer to your goals.

Cheers! 😀

RESEARCH SOURCES & REFERENCES

businessinsider.sg/compound-interest-monthly-investment-2014-3/
businessinsider.com/retirement-savings-guide-2014-3?_ga=1.199140719.1988080035.1478087095

 

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Spencer Li

Top 3 Reasons Why You Should Start Investing in 2017

Copy of Copy of Not allthose who wanderare lost

copy-of-copy-of-not-allthose-who-wanderare-lost

Brexit, Trump, Italy, asset bubbles all over the world… you name it, there’s probably some financial market jitters that keeps most people out of the world of investments.

On the flipside, the financial world often quips about some investment that has made xx% over a certain period of time, trying to entice visitors with a glimpse of the profits possible for anyone. In the world of investing, it is easy to find spectacular returns on hindsight, and salesmen go through great lengths to market what has already happened.

As traders, we live in a constant state of uncertainty. Every trade we make has the possibility of going wrong, and this is taken into account when a decision is made. It is the knowledge of this that gives power to a trader; if he can understand the math behind his investment decision, he can have a positive expectation and a positive traders’ equation.

There are three main reasons why trading is even more attractive these days. Indeed, with advanced technology, there has never been a better time to step into the world of finance, and grab a golden egg while you still can.

GOLDEN EGG 1: TRADING GIVES A HIGHER INTEREST RATE THAN BANKS

fdThe best you can get on a fixed deposit is 0.35% a year in Singapore, as at December 2016.
Source: moneysmart.sg

While inflation is a constant enemy for our savings accounts, most people do not know what to do to combat inflation. The most common quick-fix is to work harder and earn more money. While that does feed us and our families for some time, the need to build a war chest for emergencies becomes more and more real.

 

How much can you make from trading? Institutional traders bring in a success rate anywhere from 30%-70%. Why is this so?

The greatest insight into the markets that can make you profitable is this: 90% of the time, the odds are 50-50, while 10% of the time, the odds swing 60-40 (slightly in your favor).

That’s right. While most of the time, markets are 50-50, it is those brief moments when the market gives some opportunity, and prices quickly move to take advantage of this opportunity. That means that if you were to buy or sell randomly, you already have a 50% chance of success!

Another insight to know is that a high success rate (hit-rate) brings a lower profit target, while a low success rate brings a higher profit target.

What do I mean by this? Institutions trade using a combination of low-probability and high-probability trades.

Example: 40% (low) success rate, win = +2%, lose = -1%.”

low

In this case, if you were to make 100 of such low-probability trades, you would make +80% on winning trades and -60% on losing trades, bringing a 20% return on capital.

Example 2: 75% (high) success rate, win = +0.5%, lose = -1%

high

In this case, if you made 100 high-probability trades, you made 37.5% on winning trades and -25% on losing trades, bringing +12.5% return on capital.

It is impossible for the market to give high-probability trades with a high profit potential. This would be quickly detected by institutional traders, who have mathematicians, PhD staff, and computer science experts who can quickly make adjustments and profit from it. With hundreds of millions of dollars at stake, these people would do all they can to bring profits for their firm.

 

That is why if anyone quips that they have a 80-90% success rate, they are probably having many small wins but a few gigantic losses. If you don’t believe me, try trading forex and planting random trades with low profit potential and high loss potential. The numbers indeed prove to be true!

That is also why it is important to understand the traders’ equation. With a reasonable success rate and an appropriate win-loss ratio (or risk-reward ratio, RRR), you would be profitable over the long-run.

I have had days where I ran 7-8 trading losses in a row, but because I trusted in the probabilities, the next 3-4 trades ended up profitable, as long as I stuck to my trade setups and didn’t let the emotions get the better of me.

GOLDEN EGG 2: TRADING DOES NOT REQUIRE LOTS OF CAPITAL

If you have $500 to invest: trade forex.

In the Forex market, you are entitled to ‘get a feel of the game’ by risking a few dollars per trade. By trading the smallest lot size (0.01 lots), you can learn to make a few dollars here, lose a few dollars there, and rack up trading experience and learn to trade ‘live’ without incurring hefty losses.

By learning to make many decisions and experiencing all the different conditions of the market, you would become seasoned enough to trade a bigger size, and fine-tune your own trading strategy.

Many traders discover they have certain characteristics about themselves that hinder success. In trading a ‘live’ account with a small sum of money, they are putting in some skin in the game, and getting used to the ups and downs of their account.

The best part about forex is that there are no commission charges. The broker makes money from the bid-ask spread, which is the difference between the buy/sell price, and most brokers charge reasonable spreads, allowing you to trade with almost negligible transaction cost.

If you have $3000 to invest: explore stock CFDs.

Stock CFDs have low commissions and can be bought in small quantities – a few thousand dollars can allow you to have a portfolio of 5-10 stock positions.

For people with less time and more money, stock CFDs can be a great way to learn to deal with commissions, spreads, fee structures, and the whims and fancies of the stock market.

The stock market is only open during working hours, unlike the forex market. Someone who is interested to take longer-term positions may be open to trading stock CFDs, risking small amounts of money, and yet racking up trading experience.

Some people quip that the forex market is more difficult to trade than the stock market. I beg to differ, because it is your circle of competence that determines your success, not the actual characteristics of the market.

If I were to ask you to drive a Formula 1 race car, you probably would kill yourself within the next few hours or so. However, if you were progressively taught how to drive the race car, it doesn’t become dangerous, and because of the progressive nature of your learning, the high speeds don’t come as a shock to you.

f1Driving this car is dangerous, only if you are not trained.
Source: wallscorner.com

Many people get shocked at the speed by which forex markets move during the Non-Farm Payroll Announcements and FOMC Interest Rate Announcements; prices can move 10-50 times faster than normal during those crazy periods! However, with practice, these sessions can become a profitable time for traders with experience and proper risk management.

If you have $10,000 to invest: trade everything.

People with more money have the luxury of trading a combination of stocks, forex, commodity, bonds, and index trades. These can be accessed through any decent forex broker, and you’ll be surprised to find that most forex brokers let you trade forex, oil, gold, the Dow Jones Index, the S&P, the bond markets, wheat, corn, natural gas, and more. These of course come with higher margin requirements, but exploring all the asset classes makes you a seasoned, well-rounded investor that can take any market condition.

Sideways in the forex market? Maybe there is a trending opportunity in the oil market. There’s always something to trade if you have the experience and know where to look.

However, in my opinion, the greatest investment is Golden Egg 3.

GOLDEN EGG 3: TRADING BOOKS ARE CHEAP AND EASY TO FIND

John Murphy: Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. One of the great trading classics that builds a strong foundation.

John Murphy’s book on technical analysis reveals the fundamental nature of financial markets. Prices move in patterns and cycles, and understanding history helps you to cope with what is to come.

In my trading journey, I’ve read more than 200 books, and found only about 11 of them that are useful in my trading career. These books were either borrowed from the library, or bought only for $30-$50 a book, which is a very good price (since stock commissions can be $15-$25 already!).

Buying a few good trading books can completely change your destiny.

If you are starting out, why not invest in 3-5 good trading books, before getting your hands wet in the financial markets? These books would build a strong foundation, and you would start off with a better understanding of why things happen.

bookSome of the more famous online bookstores.
Source: Company websites

Amazon.com and bookdepository.com provide great options and they ship almost anywhere in the world. Personally, I found that bookdepository has the more exotic books, but it is a little pricey (yet still worth it since you can’t find the books easily!)

Second-hand books: Carousell if you live in Singapore! If you’re lucky you can find good books at a discounted price. Even though the books may be a little dusty and yellowed, it’s the content that you want to really absorb. You can always find what you want if you search hard enough!

TRADING & INVESTING EDUCATION IS WITHIN OUR GRASP

If you are still thinking about it, here’s why you should pick up investing education:

  • Historical chart data is free (we used to need to pay in the 1990s and 2000s)
  • Free resources are available
  • Books are cheap and easy to find
  • Starting cost is as low as $500
  • Cost of failure is low
  • Experience can be racked up with very little capital
  • There is a market for every type of investor

And most of all, it can bring higher returns in the long-run than placing your capital in the bank account. Sure, you might risk losing a couple of dollars at the start, but the cost of ignorance is a lot higher when compounded over the next 5, 10, or 20 years!

Wishing you all the best in your trading journey, and I do hope this article serves as a pump to start you on your quest for investment expertise!

Cheers!

 

RESEARCH SOURCES & REFERENCES

http://www.moneysmart.sg/fixed-deposit
http://www.lifehack.org/articles/money/15-best-online-bookstores-for-cheap-new-and-used-books.html

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