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By this time, most people are also starting to believe in the V-shape recovery, and the Nasdaq has already fully recovered from the crisis, surpassing its highs before the Covid crash.

Will the tech stocks be able to lift the rest of the market to new highs, or will the general market drag down the tech giants as the reality of the economy kicks in?

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Market Overview

Last month, the USD was very strong, while the AUD was one of the weakest, however this month we have started to see a twist of events, where the AUDCAD is in a strong bull, while the USD/CHF is in a strong bear.

Gold has declined slightly, putting it in weak bear territory.

Nasdaq (NASUSD) remains the strongest stock market, whereas Hang Seng (H33HKD) remains the weakest.

Major Events

The biggest news of the week is probably the awesome jobs data from the US, although there was some classification error.

 

Stock Markets

The stock markets continued to rise, and as I posted in the case study below, since the tech stocks have gone up so much relative to the rest of the market, I was expecting the rest of the market to play catch up, and on Friday we saw the Dow Jones & S&P 500 outperforming the Nasdaq as anticipated.

 

Weekly Trade Highlights

Here are some highlights and case studies of trades done on forex, commodities and CFD products, also taken from our private forum.

See more case studies: https://synapsetrading.com/trading-guides/case-studies/

 

The first is a trade we did on the USD/CAD, as it broke down from a descending triangle.

 

Next, we also had a good run on Crude Oil, riding on the surge in prices as economies reopened.

 

Trading Insights

 

 

Join our Last & Final Skillsfuture Workshop!

2 weekends ago, we conducted another full-house Skillsfuture workshop, with 40 pax of new traders & investors, as well as some of my past students who sat in to help out.

So far, every intake has been a full house, which is why we expanded to 3 workshops instead of 1 originally planned, because of the overflow. But our license expires on 18 June, so this is the last and final workshop which we can hold.

This fully subsidised Skillsfuture workshop will give you the skills and roadmap to build a second source of income to plan for early financial freedom, by building an all-weather portfolio that can perform well in any market conditions, and also market timing skills to create additional cashflow from short/medium-term trades.

Date: 13 & 14 June 2020 (6pm to 10pm)

Click here to check availability:
🔥 https://wp.me/P1riws-8OX

💰 First-come, first-serve!
🍻 See you soon! 😄

While the US economy looks to be slowly re-opening, we are seeing a lot of bearish news in the market.

Will there be a 2nd wave of infections, and a 2nd wave of market sell-offs?

Join our FREE Telegram channel for daily trading tips:
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Market Overview


Looking at the various markets, it looks like this week going into risk-off mode, where traders take on defensive positions, and possibly shorts on the stock markets.

 

Stock Markets – Next Wave of Selling?


While the US is gradually re-opening its economy and easing restrictions, this might lead to a new wave of infections, since their cases and death rates are still rising, which shows that they have not totally got it under control.

Also, tensions between the US and China have been escalating, as the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo saying that there was a “significant amount of evidence” connecting the coronavirus to a lab in the Wuhan region of China.

Over the weekend, during an interview with Warren Buffett, he said that he had sold all his airline holdings. While he was optimistic on the long-term outlook, he also mentioned that the pandemic has damaged some industries permanently, suggesting that the economy may not “return to normal” that quickly.

On the plus side, Gilead’s antiviral drug, Remdesivir, will be available to coronavirus patients this week.

 

Bitcoin – Amazing Profits in One Week!

Bitcoin was our most profitable trade last week, with an epic price surge of close to 30% in a few days.

Congratulations to all those who were following our trades! 💰😎🔥

 

Forex Market Updates

Here are a list of various potential trading opportunities for this week, including AUD/USD, CAD/CHF, CAD/JPY, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, Gold.

 

Start Your Trading Journey Today!

If you are interested to start your journey with our closely-knit community, click on the link below: https://synapsetrading.com/the-synapse-program/

Here is some feedback from our students:

“I’m very new to trading and this training gave me a lot of important insights & strategies to become a good trader.” – Larry Tan

“I feel that the course provided a clear and proven methodology to trade effectively. The tools provided are also very supportive.” – Janie, AXA

“The concepts taught by Spencer are easy to follow!” – Jiawei

“Very informative and interactive training conducted in a right pace.” – Eugene Chng

“A very complete training program that give a good coverage on trading and practical setups that are easy to understand and apply. The mindset portion is very important to ensure that we are profitable in the long term. Thank you.” – Alan

“The training was very well-done. The flow in the course is good, and very informative and detailed with a good overview of the entire market. The ending with mindset and psychology summarized it nicely. The case studies were also very useful in allowing us to apply the principles involved.” – Sherilyn Tan

See you on the inside! 🍻

If you have been keeping up with the news, you will know that oil futures (May) have hit negative territory for the first time in history, and that has spooked the stock market as well.

Going forward, will this be the catalyst that causes another leg down in the stock market, or will we see the lockdowns ending soon, and the economy returning to normal?

Join our FREE Telegram channel for daily trading tips:
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Did You Catch This Epic Oil Crash?

If you are wondering why oil prices managed to go negative, the reason is quite simple:

Oil costs money to store.

Due to the economic collapse, oil isn’t being used much.

So all the storage facilities are filled up. So nobody who can store it will buy it from you.

If you want to get rid of oil, you have to pay someone.

When oil was trading at $20, we were already short with a target of $10.

To be honest, I did not really think it could go that low, and was prepared to take profits along the way.

But sometimes if you get the direction right, you might get lucky and enjoy a windfall profit.

 

It is worth noting that only the May contract dropped drastically, while the June and July contracts remained much higher.

This means that traders are expecting some economic recovery (and an increase in demand?) in the coming weeks or months.

 

Something interesting to note is the divergence between stocks and oil, shared by one of community members.

How Will This Affect the Stock Market?

Comparing across different asset classes, we can see that crude oil and the 10-year treasury are bearish, while the long-term treasury bonds and Gold are bullish.

The S&P 500 is somewhat sideways, and has not decided which way it would follow.

 

Most fund managers seem to think that the recovery will be U-shaped, meaning we can expected a prolonged sideways movement in the stock market while the real economy takes its time to recover.

The second most popular option is the W-shape recovery, meaning they expect another leg down to test the prior lows. This one has my vote as well.

And lastly only 15% think a V-shape recovery is likely.

 

Based on what I posted last week, there are 2 potential areas which I feel offer a high probability short trade, and if prices manage to clear the 3000 level, then I will rethink the W-shape hypothesis.

Updates Regarding the Covid Situation

 

Although the number of cases seem to have peaked in most major economies, and the US might want to relax its lockdown and resume the economy, there is a high risk of a second wave of infections, which might actually drive the second leg down of the stock market.

Also, the number of cases in developing countries seem unusually low, which is likely a case of not doing much tests. Hence there is a real risk that we might see an explosion of cases once the testing scales up.

Now that things have started to stabilise, many countries are starting to point fingers at China for their slow disclosure of the virus, thus allowing it to spread globally and wrecking havoc worldwide.

This could lead to more global tension and conflicts going forward.

As you can see, there are always many exciting trading opportunities in the markets, and I think that another big move is coming really soon, so now would be a really great time if you plan to start learning about trading & investing.

Start Your Trading Journey Today!

If you want to learn, you might as well learn from the best. 😄

Here is some feedback from our students:

“I am more confident to trade better with the setups I have learnt. I confident to meet my goals if I take action.” – Joseph Benjamin

“Really enjoyed the training by Spencer. He makes a complicated topic easy to understand and actionable.” – David Lee, Offset Pte Ltd

“Spencer has been a very good coach and is very equipped with skills that he can impart to us!” – Jun Hao

“Happy with the course as it gives a good intro and holistic approach. A unique TA approach to market. Also comes with many tools to help us kickstart the process.”

“The course is well-planned and thought-out. As an experienced trader, I feel it definitely helps me to have an edge over the markets in various ways.” – Shi Min

“A comprehensive and insightful course that is useful for those looking to understand technical analysis better.” – Daniel Tan

“Would recommend this course to others. I think, more focus on each type/setup will be good.” – Junnaidy

“Great resources and support to understand content. Spencer has condensed his market knowledge and experiences for new traders to understand and learn well.” – Minghan, MOE

If you are interested to start your journey with our community, click on the link below: https://synapsetrading.com/the-synapse-program/

See you on the inside! 🍻

Recently in this stock market crash I have been getting this question a lot, and I think it applies not just to this market crash, but to all large market corrections in general.

So, is it better to sell everything in your investment portfolio, or to hold on till the market recovers?

In this video, I share my thought process on how I make my investment decisions for my long-term investment portfolio, and I offer you two important pieces of advice which you can use to strategize your own investment portfolio.

In deciding whether to cash out, you need to determine if you are using an active or passive investing strategy.

If your portfolio strategy is passive investing like dollar-cost averaging, or annual rebalancing of an all-weather portfolio, then whether the market is up or down should not have an impact on your strategy, and there is no reason to change your portfolio strategy and panic sell just because there is a market crash.

If your investing strategy is more active, such as value investing, or asset rotation, and you are good at it, then by all means follow your strategy of rotating your assets into safe haven products like cash or bonds.

The problem that most people face is that they do not have a portfolio strategy in the first place. And if this is the case, then should you hold on to what you have, or sell it in case it goes lower?

In the past 50 years, the market has only corrected 30% or more about 5 times, and only 50% or more about twice. So we need to think about this in terms of a trade-off between upside vs. downside potential.

If the market has already corrected 30%, and you did not manage to liquidate your portfolio earlier, at this very point in time, how much lower can it go? Another 20-30% more?

But if you sell off and it recovers to the previous highs before you can buy back in, the gains you will miss out are 40-50%.

So you need to decide if the downside risks you are avoiding is worth the potential gains that you could miss out on.

Another major consideration is whether you are currently adding to your portfolio (cash inflow), or drawing out from your portfolio (cash outflow). This will determine how aggressive your portfolio strategy is, and I will talk more about it in the video.

Enjoy the video, and remember to “like” and “subscribe”!

Recently I have been receiving a lot of emails and messages asking about the market, and also an unprecedented number of people joining my private trading network, and the obvious reason for this is that the markets now are offering excellent trading opportunities.

Heading into Bear Market Territory

Last Thursday, we officially saw the stock market enter the bear territory, with a 20% correction from all-time highs.

Many people tell me that it is impossible to time the markets. But is that really true, or are they just parroting something they read online or from a book?

Take a look at the 2 charts below. The one on the left is the chart I posted for my students on 27 February 2002.

Now take a look at how accurately it played out on the right, which is the what actually happened.

Now imagine if you had that roadmap on the left, how much money would you have made, or how much money would you have saved by liquidating your portfolio before the full crash?

How Much Did You Make from This Crash?

While most “value investors” or “long-term investors” are complaining about how badly hit their portfolios are, the truth is that the only thing they can do now is quote Warren Buffett and hope that the market rebounds in the long-run.

Eventually, it probably will, and I will also be buying in once the crash is over, but why would I want to sit through a crash that can be avoided?

And more importantly, why would I want to miss such a great money-making opportunity?

These past few weeks of steep declines have probably been some of the best trading days I’ve seen in my career, allowing me to more than double my trading account (ROI of +169.54%) in this short span of time.

This is probably more than most people’s one year salary. Yikes!

 

 

 

And I am glad to be able to guide my students (including complete newbies) during this period of time to generate awesome returns as well on their trading accounts.

Swing Trading Opportunities

With the market in such turmoil (and high volatility), there are going to be a lot trading opportunities on the intraday and swing timeframe, but you will need to have the right skills and techniques to trade these markets.

I would also recommend using smaller lot sizes to trade if you are not used to fast markets.

For example, in my trade below, I used a very small 0.01 lot size to take quick trades on the S&P 500, which allowed me to make US$671 on just one trade in a few minutes.

 

If you take a couple of such trades a day, and use good money management to pyramid or stack positions on strong setups, it is not hard to generate 5 figures a day in such markets.

Of course, these are not normal market conditions, and I do not know how long they will last, which is why we need to make the most of it for the next few weeks.

Roadmap for the Bear Market

Some of the common questions I have been getting:

  • How long and how deep is this correction going to be?
  • When is the virus going to peak?
  • When should I start buying?
  • What should I be buying?
  • Should I sell off my portfolio in case it falls more?

In my opinion, a lot of factors are hard to predict, and this crash is unique because it happened so quickly.

The 2008 crash took 18 months to correct about 50-60%, while this time we took about 3 weeks to correct 25-30%.

That’s insanely fast. some people have not even had the chance to panic sell yet. 😆

Although China has mostly managed to control the spread, and is on the route to recovery, many countries in Europe, Middle East and the US are still seeing and exponential increase in cases, so what we want to see is a deceleration of cases, so that from there we can estimate where the peak is.

If you look at the graph of all the past corrections in the S&P 500, there are only about 5 times in the past 55 years where it has gotten worse then this. (Also don’t forget to join our free Telegram channel for daily market updates if you click on that link.)

Personally, I do not think the bottom is here yet, and after consulting my charts over the weekend, I have come up with another roadmap for the next few months.

To be fair, I will only be sharing this new roadmap with my students, and I will continue to monitor the markets daily so that I can update them when I feel that it is time to start buying.

The Once-A-Decade Opportunity

Anyway, if you have missed the move down, do not despair, because the next big opportunity is the move up, once the decline ends.

Opportunities like this to multiply your wealth only comes once in a decade, so if you don’t want to miss this chance, I would like to invite you to join our private network with an awesome community of traders.

If you would like to avoid missing out on any of such awesome trades (which we deliver on a daily basis), then you should definitely check out our training program & trading signals bundle:
https://synapsetrading.com/the-synapse-program/

See you on the inside! 💰😎🔥