If you’ve been reading the news, you will know the US stock market is at an all-time high, and quite possibly one of the longest bull runs in history. According to Zerohedge, this is the longest bull run since the great pyramid boom of 2580 B.C.
Also, the US economy seems to be doing pretty well, especially with the booming tech sector, and even the banks are hitting record profits.
But I think the big question on everyone’s mind is this:
Is this a Good Time to buy Now?
If you believe that markets follow the boom and bust cycle, such as the 10-year cycle, you will know that we are “overdue” for a big correction. Logic dictates that we aim to buy after a big crash to get the best value (and most potential upside), hence buying at the all-time highs might not seem like a good idea to many people.
If you look at the current chart of the S&P 500, you will see that the price is just testing the prior highs, which means that it is at a very critical point.
If prices get rejected at this level, it could end up forming a double top reversal pattern, which is very bearish and could see a decline to the 2280 levels.
For the strong uptrend to continue, prices need to confidently break above the prior highs and stay above that level.
What Could Go Wrong?
With escalating political tensions with many countries, and the trade war with China, a confluence of negative factors could adversely affect the fundamentals of the US economy.
With the risks in mind, I will not be aggressively accumulating positions at this time, and will have to focus more selectively on key sectors.