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An Exciting Week of Trades – AUD/CHF, EUR/USD, NZD/USD, etc!

Last week, we had some pretty decent trades in, netting close to US$2,000 in profits for a handful of quick trades, riding on the strength of the USD after the FOMC.


 

Also took the chance to check out my new house:

 

For those who are keen to join our private network for timely trade calls, you can reserve your spot here, but do so early, as we only allow 20 new people to join each quarter!
Register: http://synapsetrading.com/the-synapse-program/

GBP/USD – Predicting the Big Short (And Cashing Out Big Profits on it!)

Last week, the Pound suffered its steepest daily fall of 2017 after a shock election result denied any party a majority in parliament days before Brexit negotiations begin.

Source: The Telegraph

Thankfully, our Synapse Network came fully prepared to profit from this move! 😀

Here is a highlight of the early prediction given by Spencer several days before the sharp plunge:

While waiting to short Gold, we took a short-term long trade to make some quick bucks on the side.

Cashing out on some Gold profits to start the week. 💰 Taking only safe trades with low risk and high returns. #realtrades #realresults

A post shared by Spencer Li 🇸🇬 Synapse Trading (@iamrecneps) on

And when we finally saw the glaring signal (yes, it was so obvious from the charts!), we jumped in to short GBP/USD, just one day before the sharp plunge! Ka-ching! 😀

 

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Live Trade Follow-up: GBP/JPY Short Trade US$1086 in the Money!

Announcement: I will be taking a long break to focus on my trading and coaching of existing students (as well as several new exciting projects), but before that I will be conducting one last session of the “Trading Foundation workshop” on 18 May 2017 and the last run this quarter of the “Trading Mastery Program” on 27 & 28 May 2017.


During the last “Trading Foundation Workshop”, we scanned various forex charts and discovered this short trade in GBP/JPY to be the best setup, and I took the live trade on the spot, together with many of the audience members.

And although I only took a small position of 0.50 lots, this trade shows that times and patience can snowball your returns, as long as you just “forget about it” and let the trade run its natural course.

During my final workshop tomorrow, I will be scanning all the charts for such good trades, and I have already spotted some juicy trades tonight while browsing through my charts.

Looking forward to share more tomorrow! 😀

P.S. I will be taking a long break to focus on my trading and coaching of existing students (as well as several new exciting projects), but before that I will be conducting one last session of the “Trading Foundation workshop” on 18 May 2017 and the last run this quarter of the “Trading Mastery Program” on 27 & 28 May 2017.

The World’s 7 Greatest Currency Trades Ever Made – Key Lessons & Insights

Have you ever wondered, what are some of the most epic forex trades that went down in history? And more importantly, what crucial insights and lessons can we learn from these legendary traders?

1) ANDY KRIEGER – $300 MILLION PROFIT

Andy Krieger is a somewhat unknown trader who made his name at Bankers Trust. He was watching currencies in 1987 after the Black Monday crash, and he saw an opportunity for arbitrage in some overvalued currencies. He became famous because he shorted a few hundred million dollars worth of Kiwi (New Zealand’s currency), and he shorted so much that his position was said to exceed the money supply of New Zealand as a nation.

Andy shorted so much currency that there was not enough currency in circulation to support the short.

The kiwi fell tremendously while he was shorting it and made $300 million for Bankers Trust. Legend has it that a worried New Zealand government official called up Krieger’s bosses and made threats to him. Krieger later left the firm to work for George Soros in his quantum fund.

 

2) STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER – $2 BILLION TRADE

Stanley Druckenmiller made this historic trade as a trader working for George Soros’ Quantum Fund. He went long on the German mark because of the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the undervaluation that was going on during the reunification between East and West Germany. Legend has it that Stanley initially bet a few hundred million dollars, until Soros told him to raise the bet to $2 billion. That year, the Quantum fund brought in 60% returns.

Stanley is a rather unknown person, but the fact that George Soros hired him is worth noting.

Another trade that Stanley made was in the 1990s. He was buying German bonds, because he expected investors to move from British bonds to German bonds. It was also during the period where Soros broke the Bank of England.

3) GEORGE SOROS – $1 BILLION PROFIT IN THE POUND

George Soros became famous because he shorted the pound aggressively, in fact, so aggressively that he borrowed heavily and make $1 billion in the process.

At that time, Britain wanted to keep the value of the pound above 2.7 German marks, a key feature of the fixed exchange rate mechanism. Many speculators began to take up short positions in the expectation that this fixed exchange rate would not hold.

This was the famous ‘broke the British bank’ trade that shot George Soros to stardom.

Britain even raised its interest rates to double digits to try to attract investors and prop up the buying in its currency, however, the British government soon realized that it would lose lots and lots of money trying to keep the value of the pound. Soros made $1 billion for his fund on this trade.

 

4) PAUL TUDOR JONES – $100 MILLION PROFIT SHORTING BLACK MONDAY

The U.S stock market experienced its largest 1-day percentage decline ever on Black Monday of 1987. This was the most shocking fall the world had seen at that point, and even up to today, no 1-day decline has ever matched Black Monday.

Betting on a black swan event netted Paul Tudor Jones $100 million in profits.

1The 22.6% drop in the Dow in 1987 has not been rivaled even up to 2017.
Source: stock-market-crash.net

Paul Tudor Jones shorted the stock market, tripling his money, and making US$100 million on that trade while the Dow Jones plummeted 22%.

 

 

5) ANDREW HALL – $100 MILLION PROFIT BETTING ON OIL

While working for Citigroup, Andrew Hall predicted a 5-year bull-run in oil from 2003-2008, and made the appropriate trades. Oil went from $30 to $100, and Hall brought with him $100 million as part of his compensation plan.

Andrew Hall made it big on oil in his career at Citigroup.

jAndrew Hall at a conference in September 2016.
Source: Forbes

Aside from this brilliance, he reportedly bought 1 million barrels of physical oil in 2009, and stored it, hoping that oil would rise greatly. It did, and from 2009-2011, oil went from $50 to $100. However, his oil fund hasn’t been doing well in the past 5-6 years, and he has had to repeatedly explain the lack of profits to investors.

 

6) DAVID TEPPER – $4 BILLION PROFITS BUYING BANK STOCKS

David Tepper’s strategy was simple; buy low, sell high. In early 2009, he scooped up big banks like Citigroup and Bank of America, and saw them quadruple and triple in value from their bottoms in 2009.

Nothing spectacular; buy low, sell high.

These trades earned $7 billion for Tepper’s hedge fund. His personal compensation was $4 billion.

 

7) LOUIS BACON – 86% RETURNS BETTING SADDAM HUSSEIN WOULD INVADE KUWAIT

Louis Bacon went long on oil, short on stocks in the 1990s because of this geopolitical situation. Later, he also correctly bet that the U.S. would quickly defeat Iraq and the oil market would recover.

Bacon’s event-based bets rewarded him handsomely.

1Louis Bacon explaining what he knows best; geopolitical event trading.
Source: Quotesgram

His hedge fund returned 86% that year because of these trades. Although his strategy is somewhat unconventional, he has excelled in it and carved a niche for himself.

 

AFTER READING THIS, WHAT’S NEXT?

Many of these traders had decades of trading experience under their belts. Although they all seem like they had a great stroke of luck or a brief moment of brilliance, the preparation and practice that they went through was thorough and gruelling.

I hope that these stories of real traders would motivate you to continue at your game, brush up your skills, engage the financial markets, and stay up-to-date with what’s going on.

P.S. If you are keen to learn the strategies that professional traders are using and experience some practical live trading, I would like to invite you to join us for this:

In our previous workshop, during the live trading segment, one new trader made US$200+ from following our USD/SGD short trade, while Spencer made US$454 on the same trade and over US$1,200 of profits in total during the workshop.

Come join us for our next hand-on workshop, where you will learn 4 easy strategies to tackle any market (stocks, forex, CFDs, etc), and how you can apply them with as little as 15 minutes a day to make 20-40% annual returns consistently.

In addition, this workshop also includes training notes and slides, case studies, a customised trading plan, and an additional 120 mins of exclusive training videos you can keep.

Check availability and register here: http://bit.ly/2oXJYIL
(Each workshop is limited to 30 pax)

 

RESEARCH SOURCES & REFERENCES

investopedia.com/articles/forex/08/greatest-currency-trades.asp
commodityhq.com/education/5-legendary-commodity-investors/
businessinsider.com/greatest-trades-in-wall-street-history-2013-2
ibtimes.com/top-10-greatest-trades-all-time-253039
cabotwealth.com/daily/options-trading/the-greatest-options-trade-i-ever-saw/

The Top Hedge Funds of 2016 Share Their Best Bets for This Year (With New Charts & Examples)

Bloomberg recently did a good cover on what hedge fund managers are looking out for in 2017. The general consensus is clear; the market is uncertain, and world events are causing markets to react in unexpected ways.

“You’re going to have to take way more risk today in order to try to make outsize gains versus a year ago,” -Hanif Mamdani, PH&N Absolute Return Fund

I found the article to be pretty insightful, with a handful of key take-aways. To make it easier for my readers, I’ve broken up the article into easy-to-digest sections, and added some charts and examples to make it clearer. Here we go:

1. Distressed Energy Companies

Hedge funds specializing in purchasing companies that are on the verge of collapse, actually profited from the rise in oil prices last year. Companies that were in the red started to turn profitable, and after purchasing companies at ultra-cheap prices, these assets were starting to bring in significant capital gains for hedge funds. Even though oil has risen significantly, hedge fund managers still see the potential for more gains.

It’s interesting to look at the related ETFs for oil and gas companies. I’ve pulled out 2 charts of U.S Oil & Gas company ETFs (XES and IEO). The gains over the year are impressive.

The charts above summarize the oil and gas sector for the year of 2016.

On the technical side, the Oil & Gas sector is still on an uptrend. It is prudent to remain bullish when the market is still trending up. It’s interesting that XES has broken out of a wedge, and looks to be gathering bullish momentum.

In the longer term, oil & gas companies seem to be picking up momentum.

 


A few weeks ago, I was invited to give a talk at the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX) on the Offshore & Marine sector, and Keppel Corp was one of our top picks. 

2. “Global Macro Deceleration”

Some hedge fund managers are positioning themselves for the worst. For example, a border tax in the U.S could “cause a global depression and a major equity market decline,” says Carlson Capital’s Black Diamond Thematic Fund. They’re waiting for commodities to “correct meaningfully” (meaning a decline in commodity prices), and looking to scoop up good stocks at the bottom of the market decline.

Traditionally, sector rotation strategists have sworn by investing in stocks like semiconductors, industrials and miners during full-blown bear markets. These stocks are famous for having high volatility and are not for the faint-hearted. A famous example, Caterpillar Inc, is shown below:


Heavy industrials like Caterpillar Inc tend to move cyclically with the economy. Notice the 6 big swing it has had since 2012!

3. Long High-Yield Corporate Bonds Amidst Rising Interest Rates

Some hedge funds are betting on higher-yield corporate bonds rising during this period. High-yield bonds typically have both a short maturity and high coupon rate. With interest rates expected to rise in the coming decade, bond prices are likely to fall and bond holders will actually be worse off (Economics 101!). However, with the shorter maturity, higher-yield corporate bonds become more attractive as they are less exposed to the beating by rising interest rates. Bearing in mind these ideas, it is understandable why these have been attractive to institutional investors in the past year.


I’ve inserted a little-known ETF, “HYG”, a high-yield corporate bond ETF that tracks the prices of high-yield corporate bonds. You can see that the bear trend sharply reversed at the turn of 2016 and has been rising steadily since. The uptrend is still in force, and some hedge fund managers are looking to speculate on a variety of interest-rate products.

What They’re Saying:

In summary, what we notice to be the consensus about the market in 2017 is this:

  • Heightened interest rate, inflation rate, and economic volatility
  • Renewed interest in unconventional investment strategies

That being said, it’s important to keep yourself updated and continually learning about financial markets. In such a unique market climate, it would serve you well to continue reading up and knowing what market participants are paying attention to.

Want to Learn How to Tackle the Markets?

Join us for a 3-hour intensive “Trading Foundation Workshop” where you will learn all the necessary skills, and witness firsthand live trading, where many of our new attendees managed to make some profits from their very first trade! 😀

Register now: http://synapsetrading.com/trading-foundation-workshop/

 

Research Sources:

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-28/the-top-hedge-funds-of-2016-share-their-best-bets-for-this-year