After Crashing 20%, Is Facebook Stock a Good Buy Now?

Just last month, I made a trip to the Facebook HQ in Silicon Valley, and I was very impressed by the work culture and vibe of the whole community there. It made me glad to be a shareholder of Facebook, and since then, I have been waiting for an opportunity to buy more of it. 😀

Yesterday, after a disastrous Q2 earnings call, Facebook’s stock has plunged almost 20% so far; is this the start of something really bad, or the long-awaited chance to buy this stock?

 

Personally, I am a big fan of the tech sector, and I have been accumulating positions in the US tech giants since I liquidated all my Singapore stocks portfolio in 2015. but I am not going to jump in blindly, so let me sum up some of the key considerations:

  • The comment that spooked investors was the CFO’s prediction that revenue growth rates would continue to decelerate in the “high single-digit percentages” in Q3 and Q4.
  • While the results were not as fantastic as in the past, the disparity to analysts’ revenue and user growth forecast were not very major.
  • Facebook is likely being extremely conservative and has plenty of opportunities to gain back the momentum.
  • They are constantly innovating and acquiring new companies, some of these might turn out to be big winners
  • Its valuation based on PE is still ok compared to other stocks in the tech sector (about 30x)

 

The last time there was a plunge in FB shares due to the Cambridge Analytica scandal, it dropped almost 10% overnight in March. However, prices recovered very quickly, and before long prices were back to hitting all time highs, bringing valuation close to a $1 trillion market cap.

Some of the key risks could include more regulations that will hurt its bottom line, or anti-trust actions that attempt to split up the company.

But there are also upsides, such as the company leveraging on its technological innovations and data to expand to other industries and eat up the value chain.

So, in conclusion, I will not buy in immediately as I do not want to be catching a falling knife, instead I will wait for selling momentum to wane and the dust to settle before scooping up more of this stock. This is to ensure that I can get in at the best price. After all, I am still optimistic for the long run.

Crypto Portfolio Update (11/01/18): 294.86% Profits Over 42 Days!

Just did a quick rebalancing of my Crypto portfolio, which is currently up 294.86% returns after 42 days.

Took profits on some huge gains like Lisk, NEO, Monero, Achain, ZenCash, VeChain, and Request Network.

Added/opened positions on some that have dipped slightly, such as Ripple, Stellar Lumens, Cardano.

Lastly, I increased cash position to 10%, in case there is a buying opportunity on a correction, since prices have been going up quite strongly recently. If prices continue to go up another week, I might increase cash position to 15%.

Remember to trade cautiously, and not be too greedy!

Grand Opening of Hustle Cafe – Awesome Brunch & Craft Beer!

After months of hard work and preparation, we finally launched Hustle Cafe, a brand new concept providing awesome brunch and 12 taps of craft beer (and cider).

But that is just the tip of the iceberg. 😀

Hustle Cafe occupies level 1 of the building, and on level 2, we have a co-working space for like-minded individuals to network and create synergies with their business.

And finally, on level 3, we have a training room, where classes on entrepreneurship, business growth and social media are conducted, and with that our whole business functions as a closely-knit business incubator community.

Do drop by when you are free, and have a chat with the friendly staff to find out more. See you there!

P.S. My favourite is the Carbonara pasta and Salmon Rosti, and for drinks I like number 3 and number 9. 😀

P.S.S. I will be having a workshop on trading and investing, and if you are keen to find out more about angel investing and why I invest in businesses such as this, do drop by to have a chat!
Check availability: http://synapsetrading.com/trading-foundation-workshop-2/

 

Grand opening on 21st July! Can’t wait! ? #hustlecafe

A post shared by Spencer Li ?? Synapse Trading (@iamrecneps) on

Chilling at my new cafe and making some trades. ? #hustleco

A post shared by Spencer Li ?? Synapse Trading (@iamrecneps) on

How Much Must You Save to Have $1M at Retirement? (The Answer is Surprisingly Low!)

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These days, $1M seems to be the golden figure that everyone aims to attain before retiring. I know there is this great debate about whether $1M is enough, but hey, $1M can get you by for many, many months.

Here’s a table summarizing exactly how much you need to save (or rather, invest) every month, in order to retire with $1M. Using some formulas from my finance 101 class in university,

tableThere you go. I tabulated the figures for easy reference.
Source: MS Excel

It’s one thing to know how much to save monthly, but the real challenge is to get down to doing it.

Here’s 3 tips I have to help you guys attain your own financial goals. They are simple, but you might be surprised how hard they are to actually follow-through with!

 

TIP 1: SAVE MONEY, REALLY.

Yes, save money. This is so easy to say, but difficult to do.

I remember that in my younger days, after receiving my first paycheck, I went out and quickly spent half of my salary on a ‘gift’ to myself, as a reward for seeing the first stack of cash come into my bank account. I quickly learnt that I did not actually need that gift, and that saving money was very, very difficult, especially since you know that your income is certain!

If there was one piece of advice on how to actually save money, it is this: PAY YOURSELF FIRST! It is surprisingly difficult to get yourself to do this, but you must learn to pay yourself first. Paying yourself first doesn’t mean buying something for yourself; it means moving money out from your paycheck into a savings account or investment account on a regular basis.

Perhaps its tough for the first few months, but new habits take time to form and when you actually get down to it, you see that it is a very useful habit to have. In fact, if you have children, it would be good to start teaching them this from a young age. “Pay yourself first, and then spend what you have left” is a good way to instill financial discipline in the younger generation.

Before you ask “How much do I need to save?”, why don’t we just get down to the first step, which is to actually start saving money?

Once you get in the habit of saving, it because second-nature. After doing so for some time, we can move on to the next tip:

TIP 2: BUILD A TRULY DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO

Generally speaking, there are two kinds of investing strategies:

FAST money: trading income, bringing in quick gains.

Trading is the way to quickly build up a portfolio and invest in dividend-yielding counters or REITs. Once you’ve stuck to a simple trading strategy, repeating it over time is bound to yield significant profits, much faster than you would in a fixed deposit or by holding the stock index for 5-10 years.

SLOW money: passive income, bringing in smaller but consistent gains.

For those with lots of money, they can allocate much of their portfolio to more stable assets, like dividend stocks, the stock index (it brings a dividend as well!), or other longer-term bonds.

Most people want to use fast money  all through their life, but it is unrealistic. As we age, we have less and less energy and time to continually engage the markets, so the goal is always to have a large war chest that brings in true passive income.

You might be surprised how few people understand the true meaning of a portfolio. Sometimes, the word ‘portfolio’ brings in the idea that you can only buy 5-10 stocks and hold them over 20-30 years. I beg to differ; in a portfolio, one must be truly diversified across…

  • All asset classes (forex, bonds, stocks, REITs, ETFs, commodities)
  • Time horizons (fixed deposits / buy-and-hold dividend stocks VS trading income)

Learning to do so requires some dedication and bumping your head in the wrong places at first. That’s why I always recommend that beginners take up forex trading; they’ll be exposed to market volatility, intra-day and longer-term trading, and also different asset classes by trading oil, gold, wheat, the stock indices, and bonds. Furthermore, you need as little as $500 to start with, and the cost of failure is very low.

 

TIP 3: STAY CONSISTENT

It is remarkably difficult to do something simple over and over again.

Want to lose weight? Exercise and eat healthy. But how many people actually keep to this?

Want to become better at socialising? Spend more time with people rather than with your phone or computer. But how many people actually keep to this?

Want to learn to trade? Stick to 1-2 trade setups, and repeat these trades week after week. But how many people actually keep to this?

It is very, very difficult to do what is simple and boring. In fact, it is the boredom that kills most traders!

One thing that experienced traders fail to do that knocks them out of the game is this: they fail to keep reading, reflecting, and honing their craft.

Continuous learning has to be part of your investing plan. After all, most people only want to invest money, but don’t want to invest the time to learn how to be profitable.

How much returns is good returns?

Well, that depends on your goals. There is a trading strategy for every level of returns. A conservative 10-20% returns as a trader is possible and you generally take a lot less risk than someone who wants 100-200% returns a year.

Depending on when you want to retire, you need to find out how much % returns you need a year, and look for a strategy that gets you there.

 

IT’S BORING, BUT YOU NEED TO TRACK YOUR PROGRESS!

how-muchWith a Google search, I found a useful table to track your progress, credits to businessinsider.sg! Source: BusinessInsider.sg

Suppose you want to save $1M, it’s extremely important to track if you are on target, and see if you need to allocate more funds to fast money or slow money.

If you are proficient with MS Excel, you should be able to come up with a table for your income, expenses, savings, investment returns, and projected net worth by whatever year that you are aiming to retire by.

I hope this article brings you to your feet and gets you started on your quest for financial freedom. Maybe for you, the first step is to actually start saving money! Starting where you are is all you need to do. With every step you take, you’ll be one step closer to your goals.

Cheers! 🙂

RESEARCH SOURCES & REFERENCES

businessinsider.sg/compound-interest-monthly-investment-2014-3/
businessinsider.com/retirement-savings-guide-2014-3?_ga=1.199140719.1988080035.1478087095

 

Monthly Portfolio Update for October 2016 – Acquired New REIT ETF

In time of uncertainty, it pays to be like the tortoise – Slow but Steady. Especially if you are serious about building passive income for the long run instead of short-term gains.

For October, the biggest change in my portfolio was the purchase of this new REIT ETF:
http://synapsetrading.com/2016/10/singapores-first-reit-etf-should-i-add-some-to-my-portfolio/

I also removed the real estate component of my portfolio, as I felt that a residential property (of which the owner resides) is technically not a cash-generating asset, and it distorts the portfolio. You will notice that the portfolio looks a lot neater now.

Baby Hermann's Tortoise (Testudo hermanni), 18 months old

I was overseas much of October, travelling to Iceland, Ireland, and UK for a 2.5 week holiday, while letting my money work hard instead. You can check out my travelling photos here: https://www.instagram.com/iamrecneps/

monthly-portfolio-updates-october-2016-1

For my current allocation, my cash, my trading accounts and my fixed income investments remain the bulk of my portfolio, at 25%, 22% and 25% respectively. This is in line with my defensive strategy, since I only have 11% in Stocks and REITs, which allows me more room to increase the holdings when the market has a significant correction.

For October, we had pretty decent trading gains for stocks and for forex, which we withdrew and added to our warchest of cash reserves. This is in line with our strategy to keep a fixed trading capital base, since we only need a fixed capital base to consistently generate monthly returns.

REVEALED: FULL PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS!

Here are my current holdings as at the end of October 2016:
(Click on any of these buttons below to unlock; for mobile device users, please click twice)
[sociallocker]monthly-portfolio-updates-october-2016-2[/sociallocker]

For more insights into my portfolio construction, and how you can create your own customized portfolio, I will be touching more on it during my “Trading Foundation Workshop”, where I will cover all the essentials to kickstart your trading & investing journey. Check availability: http://synapsetrading.com/trading-foundation-workshop/

Good luck! 😀