Market analysis and insights on Stocks, ETFs & REITs!

Will the Stock Market Crash or Continue Going Up for Another 10 Years?

Since the crash of 2008, and the recovery which started in 2009, the stock markets (especially the US markets), have been on a steady uptrend.

Chart: S&P 500 index (weekly chart)

Many of us have heard about the 10 year cycle, where the market is supposed to crash once every 10 years, for example the Asian markets during the 1997 currency crisis, and the global markets in 2007 during the subprime crisis.

However, in 2017, we did not see any significant crash or correction, which have led many analysts to rethink the theory.

Now, it is 2018, so should we be expecting a delayed crash, or are we experiencing a structural change in the markets?

If we observe the supercycles of major human technological innovations, we see that each major wave of progress is driven by a major technological innovation, such as the steam engine in the 1700’s or the internet and IT advancements in the 1900’s.

And based on the cycles, we could be in the early stages of the 6th wave, which is going to be driven by the upcoming huge advancements in applications of big data, artificial intelligence, virtual reality, augmented reality, internet of things, and blockchain technology.

Source: The Market Oracle

This means that we could be on the cusp of a super bull market, if these technological advancements are able to create a quantum leap in productivity for businesses and a huge jump in the standards of living across the globe. All these would translate into stronger stock prices, which instead of crashing the market, would propel it to new heights.

However, there are also major concerns:

  • Unequal gains across companies: the major tech companies may soon dominate all industries via the application of new technologies.
  • High unemployment: If machines take all the jobs, what are humans going to do?
  • High debt and leverage of US and European economies
  • Political risks: clash of superpowers (US and China)

In summary, many retail investors are wary of entering the stock market now because it is at all time highs and has already “gone up a lot” since 2009, hence they are waiting for a “big crash” before going in. However, this big crash may not come if successful widespread application of new technologies and innovation are able to drive a quantum leap in productivity.

P.S. I talked about this during my previous FB live session here, and there are many new exciting topics that we discuss every week!
Official FB page: https://www.facebook.com/synapsetrading/

P.P.S. Next week, I will be heading to Silicon Valley to explore the latest technologies and innovation at some of the biggest tech companies, join me for live updates here:
My personal FB: https://www.facebook.com/iamrecneps
My Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/iamrecneps/

Cheers! 😀

How to Combine Price Action with Multiple Timeframes

One of the simple yet powerful techniques I use to allow me to quickly identify trading opportunities with minimal time and effort (typically 15 minutes a day), is to use this Excel table which combines price action with multiple timeframes.

To create this table, I observe the daily and weekly charts of various products (forex, stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities, etc), and list down whether I think it is bullish or bearish on each timeframe. For the weekly chart, I only need to update it once a week, and for the daily chart, this takes me a few minutes a day.

Here are some chart examples:

This is the daily chart of the EUR/USD, and you can see that it just completed a pullback and is looking bullish. So under EUR, I mark it as bullish. For most products, I always benchmark them against the USD for easy comparison.

 

This is the weekly chart of the EUR/USD, and you can see that it is also very bullish, and rebounding off a large trendline. With the alignment of both the daily and weekly trends, this make the EUR/USD a very good long trade to be in. And since the GBP is also weak, going long on the EUR/GBP is also a good idea.

 

For the S&P 500, the long-term trend is bullish, but the short-term trend is bearish. In such a scenario, we will pass and wait for more price action. The goal is to take the best trades, not take as many trades as possible. Quality over quantity.

At the start of every week, I will be posting the updated table on the Synapse FB page, with the best trading opportunities for the week. For those who do not have much time to trade, this will be an easy way to find good trades without having to use any complex indicators/software/algorithms.

Trading Mastery Program (TMP) – Batch Q2 2017 is Ready to Transform their Lifestyle!

Last week, we concluded another exciting run of our “Trading Mastery Program”, where we imparted our powerful “lifestyle trading” strategies to empower another batch of traders to create a 2nd source of income from the forex markets by spending 15 minutes a day.

I will be taking a long break from training, so we will not be having anymore “Trading Foundation Workshops”, but I have scheduled another 2 more sessions this year to clear our waiting lists for the “Trading Mastery Program”.

We will also be opening a few seats to the public for each session, on a first-come, first-serve basis. for those who are keen, you can reserve your slot via this link: http://wp.me/P1riws-31L

 

Training Feedback from Attendees:

“Very informative. The feedback from the homework submission is very helpful as it helps to confirm the concept & understanding. The concepts are broken down into simple parts, easily understandable with great support.” – Clemence Wang

“I’m very new to trading and this training gave me a lot of important insights & strategies to become a good trader.” – Larry Tan

“I feel that the course provided a clear and proven methodology to trade effectively. The tools provided are also very supportive.” – Janie, AXA

“The concepts taught by Spencer are easy to follow!” – Jiawei

Very informative and interactive training conducted in a right pace.” – Eugene Chng

Awesome course and wonderful post-course support even before the course ends.” – Eddy

Excellent training.” – Quek Boon Kiat

“A very complete training program that give a good coverage on trading and practical setups that are easy to understand and apply. The mindset portion is very important to ensure that we are profitable in the long term. Thank you.” – Alan

“The training was very well-done. The flow in the course is good, and very informative and detailed with a good overview of the entire market. The ending with mindset and psychology summarized it nicely. The case studies were also very useful in allowing us to apply the principles involved.” – Sherilyn Tan

“Good program structure, clear flow of progress on how to become a good trade, deep learning with a top-down approach.” – Nguyen Son Tung

Systematic and methodical.” – Wei Ming

“The course is conducted well. Able to see charts with different perspective and understand the behavior of the market and apply the correct method.” – CW Tay

“Having being a complete newbie to trading, Spencer’s course resources have made it easy for me to understand.” – Jaxon

“The program is systematic and provides good fundamental knowledge for traders who aspire to be profitable.” – Min Lun

“The concepts taught by Spencer are easy to understand.” – Gary

“A comprehensive workshop that gives insights to trading. The money management strategy is very good advice.” – Richard Ching, Nanyang Polytechnic

 

Register Early to Avoid Disappointment!

We will also be opening a few seats to the public for each session, on a first-come, first-serve basis. for those who are keen, you can reserve your slot via this link: http://wp.me/P1riws-31L

Good luck to all the new “future millionaires”, and see you all at the top! 😀

Why I am Planning to Liquidate my Full Portfolio of Singapore Stocks

Announcement: I will be taking a long break to focus on my trading and coaching of existing students (as well as several new exciting projects), but before that I will be conducting one last session of the “Trading Foundation workshop” on 18 May 2017 and the last run this quarter of the “Trading Mastery Program” on 27 & 28 May 2017.


It has been a while since my last update on the Singapore markets (as well as my SG portfolio holdings), largely because the market doesn’t move much, so I only check on them once in a while.

Interestingly, I noticed that the STI has had an impressive run, coming off a low of 25xx to break past the 3000 level in the past few months. However, is this move sustainable?

Taking a closer look at this weekly chart which shows the historical prices over the last 20 years or so, one thing which stands out is that the market has been in a 7 YEAR sideways stagnation.

If we look back at the whole history of the index, this is somewhat unprecedented.

Which could explain why popularity in this market (as well as trading volumes) has been waning. In short, it does seem like a dying market.

Not to mention that during this same time period, the US stock markets have been steadily creeping up.

If we look at the most recent red shaded circle, that is where the current price is, and it seems to be running into massive headwinds. This means that the potential upside could be quite limited.

If we observe the large sideways range that prices have been moving in, the price is now at the top of the range. And we know that the best strategy in a range is to “buy low, sell high”, which means that the odds do not favour much more upside, unless there is some new strong positive price catalyst.

However, a cursory glance at recent news headlines seems to be painting a rather gloomy picture, with muted growth forecasts and ominous employment statistics. This tell me that downside catalysts are more likely that upside ones. In other words, there is more chance of a negative shock rather than a positive shock for prices.

In light of all these factors, I am planning to cash out most or all of my profits, and wait for more favourable odds to redeploy my capital. As a trader and investor, timing is always key.

Good luck, and trade wisely! 😀

P.S. I will be taking a long break to focus on my trading and coaching of existing students (as well as several new exciting projects), but before that I will be conducting one last session of the “Trading Foundation workshop” on 18 May 2017 and the last run this quarter of the “Trading Mastery Program” on 27 & 28 May 2017.

3 Crucial Lessons From Jesse Livermore – The Greatest Stock Trader of All Time

Jesse Livermore is known to be the most prolific stock trader. Several books have been written about him and his trading track record is legendary. His profits were so great that he was reported to have owned mansions in various places around the world, each fully staffed, complete with limousines and steel-hulled yacht for his holidays.

Some of you might have read that Livermore was worth $100 million after shorting the 1929 great market crash.

Above: Some of the books about Jesse Livermore, available in major bookstores.

What Guidelines Did Jesse Livermore Follow As A Trader?

Among the many quips he had about trading and investing, I’ve picked out some of the key ones that could make or break your trading account.

While many complain about the difficulties in trading forex, stocks, or commodities, there is a good minority that makes consistent profits in the markets.

What sets Jesse Livermore apart from his peers?

 

  1. Buy rising stocks and sell falling stocks.

The above seems obvious, but many people fail to adhere to this rule. Many people like to ‘pick tops’ and ‘pick bottoms’. Now, professional traders do occasionally try to pick tops and bottoms, but they do so with very strict risk management, and always have a contingency plan for when the trade doesn’t work out.

Beginners often makes the mistake of trying to trade against the trend. While this can be profitable for some, talk to anyone in the trading industry and they will tell you that trend-following is the major money-making strategy that every trader uses. It’s simple, easy to add positions on, and it’s stress free. The problems come when beginners make a buck from trading with the trend, and start to explore ‘new ways’ to trade and invest.

 

2. Keep trades that show a profit, end trades that show a loss.

Jesse Livermore is famous for his humongous profits, but behind every profitable trader is the admirable ability to deal with a string of losses. It’s one thing to know that you need to cut losses, but it’s another to actually cut your losses when you are wrong. George Soros famously quips that it is not how many times you win or lose, it’s how much you make when you win, and how much you lose when you are wrong.

Cutting losses is a psychologically hard thing to do in modern society. We’re ingrained to be always correct, and never admit that you messed up, because it reflects badly on you as a person. However, with investing, no one is marking you for the number of losses; the profit that you make is the final report card that matters, and that’s where we want to be focusing on.

 

3. Never average losses by buying more when your stock has fallen.

Too many people refuse to be wrong on their investments or trades.

I have heard of people say this statement: “Even if the stock drops a lot, I’ll just keep it because I’m buying for ownership and dividend cashflow, not just for capital gains.” Sure, but what happens if the stock you hold drops by 70%? 80%? You’ll buy more?

Buying more when the stock has fallen is a sure-way to get your trading account to zero. It’s taking more risk when the odds are against you.

 

Think About This: Which of These 3 Guidelines Have Brought You Losses in the Past?

Many traders soon realize early in their career, that their trading accounts could have been profitable if not for silly mistakes. Avoiding these silly mistakes requires experience, maturity, the correct knowledge, and of course, proper mentoring.

I was lucky to be mentored by veteran traders early on in my trading career. Their advice, based upon thousands of hours of market experience, contributed greatly to who I am today, and I never fail to mention, during trading seminars or public events, that by tapping on their experience, I was able to quickly attain a level of success that kept me profitable.

If you’re currently struggling as a trader, ask yourself this question: “Which mistakes have I been making?”

Acknowledging trading mistakes is a continuous process of learning and growing.

 

Ever Wondered What Trading Methodology Jesse Livermore Used?

The next step for every aspiring trader is to actually take action. Making more trades is the key to success, and consistency can only be bred by constant and directed effort towards your goals.

If you would like to learn the trading method which Jesse Livermore (as well as many other legendary traders used), do drop by for our next workshop where we will share the strategies which professionals have been using for over 200+ years to gain consistent returns.

 

Wishing you all the best in your trading journey! 😀