Market analysis and insights on Forex & Commodities!

Major Commodity Indices reaching a roadblock – how will these affect the commodity stocks? | Technical Analysis | Commodity Indices


Both the CRB and the DJC commodity indices are near the crucial 50% retracement level, which will act as strong resistance. Prices will definitely not sail right past this level, hence there will have to be some sort of reaction, for example like a pullback or consolidation, or even a correction. This could act as a drag on commodity stocks in the coming weeks. This once again highlights the importance of tracking the various global markets, even when your main market is the Singapore market. Stay tuned!

The Time Element – Choosing the Correct Timeframe

Every trader knows that using multiple timeframes can provide different perspectives on the market, and provide key information on the lead-lag relationship. Small timeframes lead larger ones, and larger ones drive the smaller ones. Understanding the inter-play is crucial.

The Time Element - Choosing the Correct Timeframe

The Time Element – Choosing the Correct Timeframe

Since trends exist on different timeframes, it makes sense to analyse at least two timeframes. For example, if one’s main timeframe is the daily chart, one can consult the weekly chart to see the big picture. This allows investors to analyze a particular trend against the perspective of the next higher timeframe.

If one is using swing counts, a lower/higher high/low in the weekly and monthly charts can provide perspectives not seen in daily charts. Long-term trendlines may be clearer, and more obvious/easily visible. Certain price patterns are more visible on long-term charts (key reversals, triangles on weekly), as well as long -term support and resistance levels.

A trend change signal on the short-term (daily) may only be a retracement in the long-term (weekly) chart. On the other hand, a trend change signal in the long-term chart may be a substantial move in the short-term even though a short-term move may seem overdone. Hence, an overdone breakout on the short-term trend may actually be the start of a major breakout if the long-term chart is still on an uptrend.

Divergence signals are also more obvious when timeframe is compressed, for example a price-volume divergence is more obvious on the weekly compared to the daily. Divergences on the larger timeframes also point to larger moves, and could herald major reversals.

In conclusion, using multiple timeframes allows one to better identify trends, and more precisely pinpoint entries and exits by zooming in and zooming out from the initial point of reference. This also allows one to better manage risk in line with one’s time horizon and investment timeframe.

The Dual Timeframe Technique (NEW!)

Citbank Forex Challenge 2010

Photo with Lee Lung Nien, COO of Citibank Singapore

This year, it was once again a gruelling tough battle at the Citbank Forex Challenge. There were over 300+ teams, and only 48 made it to the finals. I am proud to announce that 4 of the 8 teams from my round that made it to the finals were from the SMU Investment Club, including the top 3. Nicholas and I topped the qualifiers again this year, unfortunately we did not fare well in the finals. However, it was some consolation that the 1st place was taken by a team comprising of my juniors from the investment club. As the research director and trainer, I am glad that the juniors I have trained under the Advanced TA training sessions have managed to perform so well this year.

Currency updates – USD/JPY & EUR/SGD


On this weekly chart of USD/JPY, we can see that the USD has not touched the 20-EMA in quite a while, and has also bounced off the bottom of the channel. Since there is still much bearish pressure, there is a good chance that it will try to test the old lows of 82.85. USD has been weakening against the Yen, which led to the BoJ intervening to prevent a further strengthening of the Yen, by buying USD and selling Yen. An overly strong Yen makes Japanese exporters less competitive in the global market.
 
On this weekly chart of EUR/SGD, we can see a double bottom trend reversal pattern, after the down trendline was violated. However, given the prior strong downtrend, the bull flag might fail and go into a consolidation instead. This might simply be a 2-leeged pullback before resuming the downtrend. .

Commodities on the rise – Indofood and Noble | Technical Analysis | Singapore Stocks

Currently, I am long on indofood, and you can see from the chart that it is in a nice uptrend channel with quite some space to its next level of resistance at 2.58. Olam recently exhibited a similar pattern.

Noble seems to be the laggard in the commodities sector, but it has found decent support, also exhibiting a double bottom test, followed by a pullback. This double bottom pullback pattern is very bullish, plus it has just broken out of the price channel.