Last month, I took a trip to Myanmar for a holiday, and was hosted by a friend who was working for a major commodity trading firm.
It was a great week of chilling by the pool (which was 10 steps away from my room), enjoying sunsets, and trying out the local delicacies.
I also got the chance to trade the FOMC with the company of some good Myanmar beer. :p
As expected, the interest rates were not raised, which means we will have to observe October and November carefully. In addition, the recent NFP was not good, which makes December more likely.
After some serious back-of-the-napkin analysis, as well as some insightful discussions with my friend, I came to the conclusion that commodities may not recover that quickly, based on technical and fundamental factors.
I have attached below the chart of the CRB commodities index ETF, which is listed on SGX.
I will be keeping an eye on this, as I have some commodity-related counters in my portfolio, and it might be a good opportunity for the long-term.
Stay tuned for my monthly portfolio update for September coming up real soon! 😀